ROANOKE TIMES

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: FRIDAY, August 5, 1994                   TAG: 9408050096
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Hearst Newspapers
DATELINE: WASHINGTON                                 LENGTH: Medium


DEFICIT CRISIS STILL COMING, PANEL WARNS

The soaring costs of such programs as Social Security and Medicare, plus the growing interest on the $4.6 trillion national debt, will eat up all taxes collected by Washington by 2012, a special bipartisan commission warned in a draft report issued Thursday.

As early as 2003, if nothing is done to control these costs, less than 15 cents of every dollar that Uncle Sam spends will be available for new or existing programs such as job training and Head Start, the report adds.

And seven years from now, the Social Security system's hospital insurance program, which is costing more than the money on hand in Washington to pay for it, will be broke.

``Eighty percent of air time on television lately has been spent [by the Clinton administration] to tell the American people there is no problem, that the Social Security system is in surplus, that the deficit is under control,'' said Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., chairman of the 32-member Bipartisan Commission on Entitlement and Tax Reform, releasing the group's draft report.

``But there is a problem. We are out of control, and the problem is getting worse,'' he said. ``If we don't solve it today, we'll be asking ourselves 10 years from now why we didn't act sooner.''

Kerrey and other lawmakers say they fear the health care bill now before Congress will only increase the government's red ink - by as much as $80 billion over 10 years, according to the independent Congressional Budget Office.

The 32-member commission was created by President Clinton after last year's bruising budget battles. Kerrey demanded the formation of the entitlement review commission in return for his critical vote to pass the president's budget.

Entitlement programs - such as Social Security and Medicare for the elderly, Medicaid for the poor, food stamps and some farm subsidies - are the fastest-growing part of the federal budget. They are automatic payments; Congress does not have the discretion to approve or reject them.

These payments grew from less than one-fourth to almost one-half of the entire federal budget in 30 years, leaving less and less money to spend on other programs, such as the military or education.

It's not clear, though, how much impact the panel will have on the problem. With elections this fall, Congress preoccupied with other issues and Clinton boasting of short-term deficit curbs unmatched since Harry Truman, this is not the best time for warnings of a gathering crisis in popular federal benefit programs.

Many older people, who comprise one of the country's most potent blocs of voters, have organized in recent years to fight any attempt to reduce benefits.

But now is better than later, said Sen. John Danforth, R-Mo.

``Even if you were to eliminate Congress - throw all the bums out - and close down the Pentagon, close down the prisons, the courthouses, eliminate the FBI and sack the judges, then multiply all the savings you'd get from that by 10, you're still going to have a fiscal crisis early next century if you don't tackle entitlement spending,'' said Danforth, vice chairman of the panel. ``There's no escape from facing up to the problem of entitlements.''



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