Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SATURDAY, August 20, 1994                   TAG: 9408220086
SECTION: VIRGINIA                    PAGE: C-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: By MARGARET EDDS STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND                                LENGTH: Medium

REPORT: PAROLE PLAN COULD HAVE PREVENTED 4,400 FELONIES

If those numbers are adjusted to reflect the gap between actual convictions and crimes reported to police, that means almost 120,000 felonies could be prevented and $2.7 billion in related costs saved in the next decade with Allen's plan, they said.

Some Democrats responded cautiously to the forecast, but a co-chairman of Allen's parole commission said the numbers should convince doubters that it is time to act.

``These are real cases ... an analysis of real life in Virginia,'' said former U.S. Attorney Richard Cullen of Richmond at a news conference called to release the data. ``Every day we wait, we are sacrificing Virginians.

``Anyone on the fence that sees this report is going to quickly jump off the fence,'' he said.

The data, prepared by the state's Criminal Justice Research Center, became a dramatic addition to the pending debate over parole and sentencing reform.

Advocates said the numbers are persuasive, both because the research center staff is respected by the legislature and because the data reflect relatively conservative forecasting assumptions.

For instance, prison and court costs were omitted in figuring the financial impact and unreported crime was not considered in forecasting averted crime.

Allen has called a special session of the legislature for Sept.19 to consider abolishing parole and revamping sentencing. His commission, which will approve its final recommendations next week, advocates at least doubling the time served by violent criminals, and increasing it by up to 700 percent for repeat violent offenders.

To project the impact the changes would have on crime, the research center evaluated about 7,500 cases from 1986-1993 in which individuals who served time for a felony later were convicted of another felony.

Researchers concluded that 1,644 - or 60 percent - of the cases in which the second crime was violent could have been prevented if the Allen plan had been in effect. About 2,729 nonviolent crimes could have been averted, they said.

Overall, about 54 percent of the second-time felonies could have been prevented, the officials said.

Rick Kern, director of the research center, said the preventable convictions probably reflect from 5 percent to 10 percent of total felony convictions during the period.

But he said he knows of no other single program - preventive or otherwise - that could have so dramatic an effect on crime in so short a time.

What the data show, said Kern, is that ``a small core of offenders are responsible for a great many crimes.''

Legislators and lobbyists who have been skeptical of the Allen plan said they could not address the numbers without more time for analysis.

But one critic, state Sen. Joseph Gartlan, D-Alexandria, said the approach is consistent with a controversial concept advocated by former U.S. Attorney General William Barr.

Barr, the co-chairman of Allen's parole commission, long has supported the idea that keeping a relatively small group of offenders behind bars for lengthy periods could have dramatic impact on reducing crime and its related costs.

``That theory has been roundly criticized and challenged around the country,'' Gartlan said.

Memo: ***CORRECTION***