Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: WEDNESDAY, August 31, 1994                   TAG: 9409010018
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL                    PAGE: A-8   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: The New York Times
DATELINE: LONDON                                LENGTH: Medium

IRA CEASE-FIRE MAY BE NEAR

The expectations were fueled by a string of events during the past few days, culminating in hopeful statements by Gerry Adams, head of Sinn Fein, the IRA's political arm.

In a joint statement Sunday night with John Hume, head of Ulster's main nationalist party and a man who has been pressing for peace talks for 16 months, Adams said the ``essential ingredients'' for peace were now at hand. He called upon the British government to respond favorably to any move by the IRA.

Then Adams indicated Monday that he had recommended to the IRA leadership that it move toward a peaceful settlement and that he expected a ``speedy response.''

He declared: ``The potential now exists to move the situation toward a democratic and peaceful settlement. I am satisfied that Irish nationalism, if properly mobilized and focused at home and abroad, now has sufficient political confidence, weight and support to bring about the changes which are essential to a just and lasting peace.''

Analysts who have followed the outlawed Irish organization said it appeared it was on the brink of a fateful move - ending its 25-year campaign to expel British troops from Ulster by force and relying instead on political developments to achieve its ultimate objective of union with the Irish republic to the south.

Sectarian violence began a quarter of a century ago when Catholics, who are in the minority in Northern Ireland, demanded full civil rights and an end to persecution. With Protestants and Catholics fighting pitched street battles, British troops entered Aug. 14, 1969, and rapidly became embroiled in the conflict themselves.

Demographics still favor Protestants, but by a dwindling margin: of the north's 1.6 million people, 57 percent are now Protestant and 43 percent Catholic. The Protestants would instantly become a minority if the north should join with the overwhelmingly Catholic republic.

On Tuesday, the British government sought to calm the fears of Protestant loyalists - who favor continued union with Britain - by having unnamed spokesmen reassert that no concessions were given to the IRA to extract an agreement, and that there had been no change in policy toward Northern Ireland. The cornerstone of that policy is still that there can be no change in the status of Ulster without the consent of those who live there, they said.