Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, October 2, 1994 TAG: 9410030070
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MARGARET EDDS STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Every successful politician has one thing at which he or she excels, said Doak, and U.S. Sen. Charles Robb's trait is timing: "Every single time people think he's waiting too long, he turns out to be right."
Democrats can only hope that Doak is prophetic, because from Tidewater to Tysons Corner to Big Stone Gap, party faithful are saying Robb has waited dangerously long to move into high gear in his race against Republican Oliver North.
Many are urging him to revamp his strategy, to become dramatically more visible and aggressive. The change is needed, they say, not today or tomorrow, but yesterday.
"I think it's in trouble," said Del. Glenn Croshaw, D-Virginia Beach, of the Robb campaign. "In Virginia Beach, I see no enthusiasm for Robb ... They need intense interest and passion quickly."
In Charlottesville, University of Virginia law student Scott Bates also called for action.
"He will have to start matching North dollar-for-dollar pretty damn quick," said Bates, a former secretary of the commonwealth. "It's OK to be behind 4 or 5 points, but if the margin gets more than that, the election could slip away."
And in Northern Virginia, a member of the Democratic State Central Committee offered a terse assessment: "A lot of people are nervous as hell."
Robb has increased his tempo a bit recently, and, in a joint campaign appearance Friday in Roanoke, Vice President Al Gore called North "the colonel of untruth."
But with Senate duties keeping Robb in Washington at least part of most days, North still has an advantage in the hand-shaking, back-slapping department. After a summer hiatus, Robb is airing television spots, but roughly half as many as North. And, perhaps most perplexing to Democrats, an opponent they view as a dangerous commodity is coming across to many voters as a nice guy.
The most recent published poll, produced by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc., showed North with 35 percent and Robb with 33 percent.
But North's standing improved during a period when Robb was supposed to be picking up support because of independent candidate Douglas Wilder's withdrawal. And North's favorable ratings surpassed Robb's.
The remaining independent, former state Attorney General Marshall Coleman, had 18 percent support in the Mason-Dixon survey.
Even the director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the fund-raising body for Senate Democrats, seemed to be backpedaling on the Robb strategy last week.
It "may have been a mistake," said Donald Foley, "to assume that everybody out there saw Oliver North as the villain that we do."
"We all know that what's needed is for Chuck to come out and punch," said Democratic National Committeewoman Mame Reiley of Alexandria. "From this point on, it's the fight of his life. He has got to be hitting nonstop until there's a knockout."
Not to worry, Doak says.
Starting this week, he said, Robb will have a television presence that will rival, if not match, the heavily bankrolled North advertising campaign through the end of the race. Even with North's relatively free rein on television and the campaign trail, Doak noted, the Republican remains slightly behind Robb in Democratic polling.
And, he said, the fact that Robb has bided his time in attacking North does not mean that he is unwilling or unable to do so.
"We have our plan of attack. We're comfortable with it. It's based on more research than most people have at their disposal," Doak said. "There are a lot of things that people don't know about Oliver North, and in the course of this campaign, we'll get to them."
Indeed, Robb told Democrats who attended a $1,000-per-person fund-raiser in Roanoke on Friday night that his "comparative ads," a euphemism for attack ads, will go on the air "in a few weeks," Roanoke Vice Mayor John Edwards said. Others who heard Robb's talk interpreted that to mean as early as next week.
And not all Democrats agree that Robb's campaign has been too sluggish. Roanoke lawyer and former congressional candidate John Fishwick Jr. says Robb's pacing has been almost perfect.
"I'm not a basher of his campaign. I think he's run a smart campaign" because Robb has managed to stay close with North in the polls, despite North's heavy expenditures.
"The last place you want to be, until the end, is in first. It's a chess match. You wanted to be poised, in second place, ready to move that last two weeks."
Fishwick predicted that a negative attack by either side won't change much.
"Usually, you attack with something nobody knows about. There's nothing new on these guys."
Fishwick acknowledges he's in the minority.
Doak attributed much of the Democrats' nervousness to memories of the 1993 gubernatorial race, when Democrat Mary Sue Terry's hefty lead in polls evaporated in a rout by Republican George Allen.
But this year, he argued, is different.
"This race is close almost everywhere. The idea that this guy [North] is gaining any kind of huge acceptance is not warranted. There is no doubt that this guy can win the race, but the idea that he can take off and be another George Allen is wrong."
An individual familiar with Robb's thinking said the senator's restrained demeanor is partly dictated by Coleman's presence in the race.
"He doesn't want to create an opening for Marshall" by turning off voters with negative campaigning, that individual said.
Such assurances, combined with Wilder's departure from the race, leave some Democrats more hopeful than they were in September.
"The sense of inevitability of a North victory is gone," Bates said.
For Robb to win, he probably will need to forge a regional coalition similar to the one that elected Wilder governor in 1989. Geographically, Wilder lost most of the state, but a statewide outpouring of black support combined with heavy backing in Tidewater and Northern Virginia let him eke out a 6,741-vote margin.
This year, grass-roots organizers say Robb appears substantially ahead only in Northern Virginia, with other areas of the state looking more precarious. Downstate, many Democrats do not know Robb campaign manager Susan Platt, and some find her distant and acerbic. There are also complaints that local campaign offices are poorly coordinated with one another.
But rumors several weeks ago about an internal shakeup in the Robb organization appear to have abated, with Platt's team mostly intact.
With substantial numbers of voters disillusioned about Robb's extramarital social life as governor a decade ago, the best rallying point for Democrats almost certainly remains North.
But someone in the Robb camp needs to start making the case against North more aggressively - and soon, said state Del. Jackie Stump, a coalfield Democrat from Buchanan County.
"Definitely somebody is going to have to bring out the actual issues: Who is Oliver North?" Stump said.
Staff writer Dwayne Yancey contributed to this story.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB