Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, October 9, 1994 TAG: 9410120041
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: The Washington Post|
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Long
Ask Virginia voters what they want from their next senator, and most say: Vote to ban assault weapons. Support voluntary prayer in public schools. Oppose military intervention in Haiti. Back term limits for Congress.
Of course, none of the three U.S. Senate candidates is promising to do everything that the people want. But even if any of the candidates were embracing the public's agenda, a new Washington Post survey suggests that voters might be the last to know.
The survey found that the overwhelming majority of likely voters in next month's election don't know where the Senate candidates stand on many of the major issues in the campaign - including topics that Virginians say matter the most to them, such as violent crime, education and the economy.
What's more, the poll means that most voters don't even know whether the candidate they support agrees with them on the issues. The results clearly suggest that the character of the men running - in a race where both major-party candidates are dogged by controversy - will be the deciding factor.
Against that backdrop, the Senate race enters its final month in a statistical dead heat, with Republican nominee Oliver North the choice of 42 percent of the likely voters interviewed and incumbent Democratic Sen. Charles Robb supported by 41 percent.
Independent Marshall Coleman is favored by 9 percent of those interviewed, while 8 percent remain undecided.
In vote-rich Northern Virginia, Robb holds a 54 percent to 26 percent advantage over North. Coleman is the choice of 11 percent of Northern Virginia voters interviewed.
The Post poll is the first published survey to show any of the candidates above 40 percent, indicating that more voters are making up their minds as Nov. 8 approaches.
That issues have taken a back seat to character is demonstrated not only by the numbers but by interviews with voters surveyed and anecdotal evidence on the campaign trail. Consider Carolyn Gay's experience at an Alexandria Rotary Club luncheon where she heard Coleman speak the other day.
``I was talking to this other woman and we were saying, `What is his stance on abortion?' Then we both said, `What does it matter?''' said Gay, 32, a government worker. ``It pretty much transcends the issues.''
Stuart Ludeke, 41, who sells trailers to trucking companies and lives in Hanover County, said the very reason he's voting for Coleman is because he knows little about him. ``It's an attitude of implied distrust,'' he said. ``I'd rather go with somebody that I haven't heard anything about.''
Kathleen Hall Jamieson, dean of the Annenberg School for Communications at the University of Pennsylvania, said most voters who don't know the candidates' positions simply assume that their favorite shares their beliefs. The Virginia race is unusual, she said, because many voters want to stop a candidate they dislike rather than looking for one they agree with.
``If you know you're casting a `no' vote, you may not worry about what the issue positions are,'' she said. ``It may be that character is the threshold and once you've made a decision you don't look further. That doesn't happen a lot.''
The two front-runners each said the poll proves his campaign's strength, and a Coleman aide insisted it understates his support.
North spokesman Mark Merritt said he never expected to be doing so well against an incumbent with so much time left, calling it ``a clear repudiation of Robb.'' Robb spokesman Bert Rohrer said the results aren't surprising because North ``has spent millions of dollars on advertising'' that until recently went unanswered.
In a deadlocked race with relatively few undecided voters, Coleman supporters could be a key group. If they decide voting for the onetime Republican attorney general would be a waste because he cannot win - or if Coleman ends his increasingly long-shot bid - the survey suggests that Robb would be the beneficiary.
When asked who was their second choice, 42 percent of Coleman voters picked Robb and 24 percent chose North. But 25 percent said they simply would not vote on Election Day. Four out of 10 Coleman supporters said there was at least a chance that they might change their minds before Election Day.
In making their decisions, character - especially the character of North, the retired Marine lieutenant colonel who lied to Congress about the Iran-Contra affair - was far more important to voters than issues.
Among voters not supporting North, 73 percent said they had ruled him out specifically because of questions about his character.
At the same time, 52 percent of those voting for someone other than Robb said they could not vote for him because of lingering questions about his character. The first-term senator has been shadowed by his admission of marital infidelity and by staff members' involvement with an illegal tape-recording of then-Lt. Gov. Douglas Wilder, which led to criminal convictions against them and a grand jury investigation of Robb.
Many of the votes for the other candidates actually are votes against North. The survey found that half of all Robb and Coleman supporters say they made their choice not because they like their candidate, but to try to prevent North from being elected.
A total of 808 self-described registered voters who said they were certain to vote were interviewed Sept. 30-Oct. 4.
The margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB