
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: MONDAY, October 10, 1994                   TAG: 9410100050
SECTION: VIRGINIA                    PAGE: B1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: TODD JACKSON AND RICHARD FOSTER STAFF WRITERS
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

PAYNE'S IN TOUGH CONTEST

EVEN FELLOW DEMOCRATS concede that Rep. L.F. Payne is in a race "for his political life" as anti-Clinton sentiment runs strong and deep enough to endanger many rural, Southern Democrats. And that's not Payne's only problem.

With all the George Landrith signs in the windows of the One-Stop Shop on U.S. 220 near Rocky Mount, you'd think the store's owner was a dyed-in-the-wool Republican.

But the owner, L.H. Hammock, voted for Landrith's Democratic opponent, incumbent L.F. Payne, in the last election.

"I've always considered myself a Democrat," Hammock says. "But Payne didn't support Virgil [Goode], and he voted for NAFTA. That's why I'm supporting Landrith."

Payne's failure to support Goode in this year's Democratic U.S. Senate primary sticks in the craw of many in Franklin and Henry counties, where the state senator is immensely popular. Payne endorsed and continues to campaign for Democratic U.S. Sen. Charles Robb.

The fact that Goode since has endorsed Payne doesn't seem to matter, either.

"Virgil's endorsement was lukewarm at best," said one Franklin County Democratic insider. "Virgil hasn't been out flying the flag for Payne."

And in Southside Virginia - where the textile industry is king and a slew of workers have been laid off in the past several months - the North American Free Trade Agreement is just another reminder of Payne's ties to President Clinton, whose approval rating in the 5th District is abysmal.

All indications show that Payne, first elected in a landslide in 1988 and re-elected the same way since, faces his toughest election bid.

The 5th District runs from Charlottesville to Danville and includes most of Bedford County, plus all of Franklin County, Henry County, Martinsville and Patrick County.

"I think L.F. is in for the race of his political life," said Del. Whitt Clement, D-Danville. "It's a very difficult environment in which to run. It is a difficult year for any incumbent, particularly a Democrat, to win.

"And being aligned with the Clinton administration is no help; it's a negative."

University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says the 5th District race will be a measure of how big anti-Clinton sentiment is across the country as well as an indicator of Republican Senate hopeful Oliver North's ability to woo votes for other GOP candidates.

"This year, not a single rural Southern Democrat is safe," Sabato said. "Republicans are going to turn out in large numbers at the polls, and Democratic turnout will be less."

The Democratic vote will be diminished even more, Sabato said, by former Gov. Douglas Wilder's decision to drop out of the Senate race.

"Even if Wilder endorses Robb, black voter turnout is still going to be lower."

But among rural Democrats, Sabato added, "Payne is in really good shape with endorsements from the [National Rifle Association] and tobacco growers." Nevertheless, "no one knows if that will be enough to resist the tide on Nov. 8."

If Payne is defeated, it won't be because of Landrith, said Sabato, who called the Republican "a blank slate."

"The tide is anti-Clinton and pro-North in the 5th District. Because Landrith's not a controversial candidate, he doesn't put roadblocks in the way of the tide."

Even in Charlottesville, where Democratic candidates typically sweep elections, the Payne campaign is "running scared," said Albemarle County Democratic Chairwoman Rhoda Dreyfus.

Neither Payne nor Landrith has strong name recognition among voters in her area, Dreyfus said. But they do know Oliver North, and, with the possibility of Landrith riding North's coattails to victory in the 5th, she said, "We take Landrith very seriously."

Payne's responsibilities in Congress also have handicapped his re-election effort, limiting his ability to campaign extensively.

Clark Jamison, a Boones Mill real-estate agent who supported Goode's campaign for the Senate, said, "The people of Southwest and Southside Virginia expect to see their congressman more than a couple of times on television during an election year."

But with the adjournment of the House Friday, Payne's campaign finally may be ready to shift into a higher gear. Ellis Woodward, the congressman's spokesman, said Payne will be campaigning nonstop until Election Day.

Linda Moore, Payne's campaign manager, said: "We don't take anything for granted. We anticipate a tough race, and we plan to continue campaigning hard."

Keywords:
POLITICS

by CNB