Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, October 16, 1994 TAG: 9410170079
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DAVE SALTONSTALL NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
To many of his detractors, he is evil incarnate, a reckless and arrogant radical with a deep anti-American streak hidden beneath his polite rhetoric.
The truth, of course, lies somewhere in between. But what's certain is that Aristide, born a peasant in the southern city of Port Salut, today spends his first full day as president of Haiti since his exile began in 1991.
And as difficult and fractious as his ascent to power has been, his future is far from paved. The 41-year-old cleric is returning to a country torn by generations of strife, an economy in shambles and an occupying force of 20,000 U.S. troops and advisers who will be watching his every move.
It is rich fodder for the armchair analysts of the world, who already are predicting what Aristide's greatest challenges will be and what folks in the United States can expect to hear from Haiti in the weeks ahead.
Not everyone is too optimistic.
``The honeymoon is going to be a question of weeks, and then I think you are going to start hearing remarks like, `Aristide is proving difficult; he is irreconcilable; he is an obstructionist,''' said Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a liberal think tank in Washington.
``What the [Clinton] administration wants is no strife, no boat-rocking,'' added Birns. ``But Aristide has gotten where he is because he's a boat-rocker.''
Others point out that, for all his perceived personality flaws, Aristide did more to restore order during his seven-month rule in 1991 than any other leader in Haitian history. The soft-spoken cleric, who is said to speak six languages and read eight, was elected by a two-thirds majority of voters during the country's first free election in 1990.
His accomplishments, while short-lived, included balancing the country's books, drastically improving the country's human-rights record, unmuzzling the press and working toward a free-market economy.
The political skills he may have lacked in the past, experts believe, have now been bolstered by three years in the United States, where Aristide worked closely with many in Congress.
``I think he has learned a lot,'' said Jean Vernet, director of the Brooklyn-based Haiti Solidarity Network, a group dedicated to supporting democracy in Haiti. ``He now says Haiti is like a broken glass, and his job is to bring the pieces together.
``I am concerned, though,'' Vernet adds cautiously, ``about the capacity of Aristide's government to bring back the coalition that brought him to the presidency. There has been a lot of dissension in the democratic camp.''
So far, Aristide has not said whom he will name to his Cabinet, although U.S. officials have urged him to pick a prime minister with broad appeal, such as Robert Malval, the prime minister Aristide named while in exile. Malval resigned but is acting in the post until a successor is named.
Others are hoping that Aristide reaches out to Evans Paul, the charismatic mayor of Port-au-Prince whom some already are mentioning as a possible successor in 1996, when Aristide will be constitutionally required to step down.
Most agree that the country's economy will not be a huge political problem for Aristide, if only because it can't get any worse and because the U.S. government is so determined to help.
Aristide's economic blueprint includes plans to tighten the government's belt, sell off state industries, shrink the armed forces, create jobs and spur housing, education and medical care.
Western donor nations welcomed the plan and last week pledged $77 million to clear up overdue debt. President Clinton last month lifted travel, economic and most other U.S. sanctions against Haiti in preparation for Aristide's return.
Which leaves the largest wild card of them all - the military - an institution that Aristide has vowed to cut in size and move from its Port-au-Prince headquarters. Soldiers left without a job might be put to work building roads, planting trees or constructing new schools and clinics, Aristide has said.
Whether the pampered military will agree to such a restructuring is far from certain, although the presence of U.S. and later United Nations peacekeeping forces will, it is hoped, put a damper on all possible insurgencies, experts say. The issue of amnesty also will figure highly.
``Aristide will have to exercise a great deal of equilibrium..." said Antony Bryan, director of the Caribbean studies program at the University of Miami's North South Center.
``I think he will have to deal almost immediately with amnesty and just precisely who is included and who is not. That itself could be very ticklish for his supporters, who will be looking for some measure of punishment.''
The deciding factor may simply be which Aristide returns to work - the refined pragmatist with a new appreciation for compromise or the fiery preacher who as recently as last summer said, ``Never, never, never would I agree to be restored to power by an invasion.''
``He's been thoroughly coached,'' said Lee H. Hamilton, D-Ind., the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a vocal critic of Aristide. ``And it's hard to separate out what is the result of that coaching and the genuine feelings that he had.''
by CNB