Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, October 21, 1994 TAG: 9410210058
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: LOS ANGELES TIMES
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Long
President Clinton's popularity appears to have turned up slightly in the last month - from 42 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval a month ago to a better, but still negative, 44-50 percent in the current poll.
The improvement seems to have come on the basis of foreign policy, where Americans practically are evenly divided on his performance - 48 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove - as opposed to his 36-55 rating in September and similarly negative ratings most of this year.
By 51-42, those polled approve of Clinton's handling of Haiti, and by 59-30 they approve of his handling of Iraq - about the same rating President Bush received during the months immediately before the 1991 Persian Gulf war.
But the foreign policy upswing has been insufficient to stem the Republican drift of the electorate, the poll shows. The public gives Clinton remarkably little credit for any accomplishments, even in areas where he has won victories. On issues across the board, Americans now say they believe the Republicans can do a better job than Democrats to solve their problems.
Asked which party can do a better job on the country's major problems, 36 percent favored Republicans and 29 percent chose Democrats - the first time during Clinton's presidency that Republicans have had an advantage on that question.
The GOP holds similar edges on individual issues including crime, welfare reform, the economy and the budget deficit. Even on health care, where the Democrats once enjoyed a large margin, the parties are now even at 38 percent.
The GOP edge generally has not come about because Republicans have improved their ratings as problem-solvers. Instead, Americans have turned away from the Democrats.
The percentage thinking neither party can handle the nation's problems also has risen.
Regardless of the cause, however, the GOP has reaped the benefit. Asked which party's candidates they intend to vote for next month, those surveyed on a ``generic ballot'' give a 5-point edge to the Republicans, 45 percent to 40.
The ``generic ballot'' has served as a fairly reliable political barometer over the years. Generally, Democrats have lost seats when the Republicans have approached parity. The current GOP lead - something that has not occurred since July 1953, except briefly after the Persian Gulf war in 1991 - could forecast a Republican surge large enough to win control of the Senate and House.
The poll surveyed adult Americans, including 1,016 self-identified registered voters, Monday through Wednesday. The results have a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points for the entire sample and 4 points for the registered voters.
The apparent Republican edge exists despite the fact that most disagree with the Republicans on many key issues.
Most strikingly, on the issue on which Clinton has tried to focus the campaign during the last two weeks, those polled said, by 46 percent to 35 percent, that they would prefer to ``stick with President Clinton's programs'' for the economy rather than ``return to the types of programs put forth by Ronald Reagan when he was president.''
Asked about the Republican promise in the party's ``contract with America,'' to cut taxes, increase defense spending and still balance the budget, 55 percent said they believe the package is ``unrealistic.'' Only 30 percent called it realistic.
While the Democrats may be winning the argument on many individual issues, they are losing the allegiance of key blocks of swing voters - a trend driven by Clinton's unpopularity and voter unease over the future of the economy.
In the 1992 congressional elections, Times exit polls showed that Democrats won a narrow, 49-43, plurality of independent voters. They also won the battle of the crossovers, picking up 16 percent of Republican voters while Republican candidates won the votes of 10 percent of self-described Democrats.
All that has changed. Independents are swinging Republican 47-28. While 12 percent of Democrats said that they plan to defect, only 5 percent of Republicans do.
A big part of the reason voters have swung away from the Democrats seems to be the impression that Clinton and his party have not accomplished much, a perception Clinton and his aides have labored unsuccessfully to reverse.
For example, asked about Clinton's promise to reduce the federal deficit by half before the end of his term, only 16 percent said he has made either a ``great deal'' or a ``good amount'' of progress, while 47 percent said he has made ``not too much'' progress and 32 percent said he has made none at all.
In fact, the federal deficit for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 is estimated at $220 billion, compared with a projection of $305 billion before Clinton took office. Next year's deficit is estimated at $167 billion, compared with a projected $302 billion. In Bush's last year as president, the deficit hit a record $290 billion.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB