Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, October 30, 1994 TAG: 9411010042
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JOHN KING ASSOCIATED PRESS
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
The GOP needs a net gain of seven seats to wrest the majority from Democrats, and a state-by-state analysis of the 35 Senate contests suggests Republicans are virtually certain to gain at least four. That in itself would nudge the Senate, and President Clinton's agenda, to the right.
Beyond that, however, the outlook was murky heading into the final full week of campaigning. An extraordinarily high number of races were considered tossups, and a major unknown was whether Democrats had time to reverse a turnout dynamic that at present appears likely to benefit Republicans.
``Seven is a big number but we have a very good shot at winning seven or more in the Senate,'' Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour said in an interview. ``If all of the close ones go one way, we will either fall just short or gain the majority by a few seats.''
A 50-50 split after the Nov. 8 elections is hardly out of the question, either. ``Old Al might be spending a good deal of time with us,'' Senate GOP leader Bob Dole joked recently, a reference to Vice President Al Gore's tie-breaking role, as president of the Senate.
Of the 35 Senate races, 22 are for seats now held by Democrats; 13 by Republicans. Democrats currently have a 56-44 edge, and have held the majority since 1987.
Most ripe for Republicans are seats now held by Democrats in Maine, Ohio, Tennessee and Arizona. In each case, the GOP challengers who are ahead are also distinctly more conservative than the Democrats they would succeed.
From there, the GOP, to control the Senate, would need to gain three more Democratic seats, and perhaps more if it loses any of its seats.
Much of the competition is in the nine races with no incumbents running. But the final partisan breakdown hinges on close races featuring some of the Senate's better-known Democrats: Budget Committee Chairman James Sasser of Tennessee, 1991 upset winner Harris Wofford of Pennsylvania, and Virginia's Charles Robb.
Two other prominent Democrats appeared to move off the danger list in recent days: Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts and Dianne Feinstein of California.
Heading into this weekend, Republicans were leading in every race for a seat now held by the GOP, but a few of those races were tight.
One, for the seat of retiring Sen. David Durenberger in Minnesota, was considered a tossup, pitting conservative Republican Rep. Rod Grams against liberal state lawmaker Ann Wynia.
And Democrats moved within striking distance of two GOP incumbents, Sens. Slade Gorton of Washington and James Jeffords of Vermont, although both were still favored.
``If we get the movement in the final 10 days that we had in the past 10 days, this is going to end up being a normal midterm election, and that means losing three or four in the Senate and 20 to 25 in the House,'' said Tony Coelho, the former California congressman who is a senior White House political adviser.
The likely GOP Senate pickups in Maine, Ohio, Tennessee and Arizona are four of the six Democratic seats in which no incumbent in running. The others are in Oklahoma and Michigan, where Republicans are slightly ahead and dead even, respectively, entering the final full week of campaigning.
Still, even if perfect in these contests, Republicans would have to topple at least one and, if they lose a seat or two now in their hands, perhaps as many as three Democratic incumbents to capture the majority.
Target No. 1 is Sasser in Tennessee, which has two Senate races this year.
Republican actor-attorney Fred Thompson is leading Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper in a contest for the final two years of Gore's old Senate term. Gore gave up the seat when he became vice president. And transplant surgeon Bill Frist edged slightly ahead of Sasser recently, riding a conservative, anti-Clinton wave in the state by attacking Sasser's leadership in passing the 1993 budget and its tax increases.
Wofford's 1991 win over a heavily favored Republican put health care reform on the national map. But he is being doggedly pursued by Republican Rep. Rick Santorum, who holds a narrow lead. Wofford has Clinton campaigning for him Monday.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB