Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, October 31, 1994 TAG: 9410310017
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: RICHARD FOSTER STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: BEDFORD LENGTH: Long
With only eight days left until the election, Democratic incumbent L.F. Payne and his Republican challenger George Landrith are waging a final battle for the 5th District. But in the shadow of the three-way war for the Senate, the House candidates' efforts may be no more explosive than a dud firecracker.
"I don't think much of anything the [House] candidates are saying is going to matter at this point," University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato said. "This election is being driven by the Senate race. It's going to be very difficult for [Payne and Landrith] to get any kind of message out to voters through the din.
"It's out of their hands. What little time people devote to watching politics is spent on the Senate race."
Recent conversations with registered voters from the Sign Rock precinct of Bedford County seemed to confirm that.
Only nine of 15 voters from Sign Rock who were interviewed could readily identify Payne or Landrith or issues involved in the House race. More than half were undecided about who they would choose. Of the 15 voters, all knew the candidates' names in the Senate race and had some knowledge of issues. Only four were undecided about whom they would pick for Senate.
Sign Rock's voting record typically matches that of other rural Virginia communities, including many areas in the 5th District.
Janet Rainey is a sales clerk at a Bedford County carpet shop. Usually an independent voter, she said she will vote for Payne this time.
"L.F. Payne has experience. Landrith's the new guy on the block and I don't think he knows what's going on."
That doesn't surprise the experts. Those who were predicting a potential loss for Payne now say that, though the race will probably be close, Payne most likely will win.
Sabato predicts a 55-45 or closer margin of victory for Payne. Virginia Tech political analyst Bob Denton predicts a Payne win by roughly the same figures.
Gary Overstreet, a retired Air Force officer, said he was choosing Payne because "I met the man some time ago and he just impressed me. I don't have any opinion of George Landrith. I really don't know anything about him."
That's probably best for Payne, Sabato said, noting that Payne lacks the charisma that Landrith exudes on television and in debates. In fact, during some key campaign appearances, such as the Farmville debate, Payne looked, well, pained.
He appears stiff and ill at ease, and discusses issues at length while Landrith smiles personably and confidently and shoots off tightly woven sound bites.
"Payne's basically a shy person," Sabato said. "Politics doesn't attract a lot of introverts but he's the exception that proves the rule. Landrith is a good candidate. He projects well, he's good on TV. It's helped him as a candidate."
But, Sabato added, "Lack of charisma would hurt badly in an urban district. In a rural district, it doesn't matter much. Rural voters expect lots of contact and L.F. is good one-on-one."
Nevertheless, undecided voters could prove a problem for Payne. And, in a conservative district such as the 5th, Sabato said, chances are still good that Landrith could ride Oliver North's coattails for a close victory.
"Many people are going to go to the polls to vote for the Senate and then they'll vote for the House race, even though they haven't paid much attention to it. North's coattails can only hurt Payne; they won't help him," Sabato said.
Sandy Bays, a Bedford County housewife, is voting for North for Senate but remains undecided about the House.
"I had my mind made up to vote for Landrith but now I'm confused because the NRA is backing Payne. If George Landrith does what he says he's going to do, he'll be fantastic. I'm just not sure."
With a week to go, the candidates may not be able to do much about her indecision, not to mention educating the undecided voters who may just vote a party line because they don't know much about Payne or Landrith.
Both camps say invisibility isn't a big worry.
Dmitri Kesari, Landrith's campaign manager, said, "Obviously, [the Senate candidates] overshadow us with press and pay TV, but as far as the issues go, we're doing a pretty good job getting the issues out there. George is finding he's pretty well recognized.
"We're very optimistic that it's in a dead heat at this point. There's no way we're behind and we'll have lots of people turning out for us."
Mark Bowles, a spokesman for Payne, doesn't see the Senate race obscuring voters' perceptions of Payne.
"While voters may not know him on sight, when they think of L.F. Payne, that conjures up an image of what kind of a representative he's been. L.F.'s traveled extensively through the district with his message.
"We feel good. We're heading into the last days of the election exactly where we want to be. We're ready for a big victory."
Still, all the Landrith attack ads linking Payne to Bill Clinton and all the Payne speeches criticizing Republican social-spending cuts may not be enough to change the mass ignorance of the House race.
"It is an existential race," Sabato said. "The candidates do exist, but beyond that, we're not sure."
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB