Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: TUESDAY, November 1, 1994 TAG: 9411010094
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Although Robb's edge of 4 percentage points is within the poll's margin of error, Roanoke College pollster and political analyst Harry Wilson said the trends appear to be in Robb's favor.
"In my figures, he looks good," Wilson said. "What's important is not only that he's up by four points, but all the other things appear to be breaking in his favor. The people undecided but leaning are going to him. The uncertain [Marshall] Coleman supporters are going to him. None of them overwhelmingly, but I'd rather be in a position where things were breaking for me rather than against me."
The poll's key findings:
It showed Robb with 39 percent, Republican Oliver North with 35 percent, Coleman with 14 percent, and 12 percent still undecided.
Among the undecided voters, 64 percent say they're not leaning toward any particular candidate. But among those who are leaning, 18 percent are edging toward Robb, 7 percent toward North and 6 percent toward Coleman.
The poll also showed that Coleman supporters were more likely to switch sides than Robb and North backers are; 87 percent of North voters and 85 percent of Robb voters said they were "certain" of their decision. Only 72 percent of Coleman's supporters said they were certain. Among those "uncertain" Coleman voters, 40 percent said Robb was their second choice; only 28 percent listed North.
The Robb campaign said the survey mirrors its own tracking polls. "The Roanoke College poll shows that this race remains very close and we believe it's going to remain close right down to the wire," said Robb spokesman Bert Rohrer.
Spokesmen for North and Coleman expressed skepticism about the poll.
North spokesman Dan McLagan said the Republicans' private polls showed different results, which he declined to disclose, "but no doubt it's a close race."
Coleman spokesman Anson Franklin said he doubted Robb and North were as strong, and Coleman as weak, as the Roanoke College Poll indicated. "I don't think any of that is true," he said. "There's nothing to show that kind of movement. It just isn't there."
He said he believed North and Robb are stagnant, in the low 30s, while Coleman is moving into the 20 percent range.
Independent political analysts split on whether they found the poll's findings reliable.
"The poll comports very well with other polls," said Mark Rozell of Mary Washington College. "It says this is a close election. This poll shows very little movement in the electorate. It puts Robb and North a little higher, and Coleman a little lower, but it's not a statistically significant difference."
University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato, however, disagreed. "That contradicts the North internal polls, and I know they're doing a professional job," he said. "They have North up by four to seven points" depending on the methodology used.
Sabato also questioned one of the Roanoke College Poll's key assumptions - that black voters will constitute 16 percent of the electorate on Nov. 8. "The all-time record was 17 percent with Doug Wilder in 1989," he said. "I'd lean closer to 12 to 13 percent this time."
If so, that would tend to decrease Robb's numbers, because the poll shows black voters overwhelmingly favor the Democrat.
The Roanoke College Poll also asked those surveyed an open-ended question about what they consider the most important issue in the election. Fully one-fourth were unable to name one, prompting Wilson to dub this "the issueless campaign."
Wilson said he was intrigued by the way the issues that were identified cut with different voter groups:
Crime, for instance, was more important to Robb voters than North supporters. Ten percent of Robb supporters listed it as their top issue, second only to character. But only 5 percent of North backers identified crime.
North voters were far more interested in the economy; 20 percent said that was their top issue. Only 9 percent of Robb voters said the economy was their main issue.
Not surprisingly, character ranked as a big concern, but it was more important to Robb voters than North voters, and most important of all to Coleman supporters.
Roanoke College's Center for Community Research has conducted various local polls for about a decade; its best-known work is the annual Roanoke Valley Poll, done in conjunction with the Roanoke Times & World-News.
However, this is the first time the center has ventured into a statewide political campaign. Wilson, the center's director, said he saw the poll as a "public service." But Roanoke College administrators also view the poll as a public-relations tool for the center, which hopes to be hired to do more surveys.
"A lot of people think the Roanoke Valley Poll is the only thing we do and it isn't," said Teresa Thomas, the college's director of public relations.
She's also hoping that conducting a poll in the high-profile Senate race will help bring national attention to the college.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB