Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, November 7, 1994 TAG: 9411080042
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: From the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times and The Associated
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
This is a campaign Democrats always have known they would lose. And despite apparent last-minute recoveries by some of their candidates, the only question that remains before Tuesday's balloting begins is how large the loss will be.
Interviews with strategists in both parties indicate that Republicans have at least a 50-50 chance of seizing control of the Senate, where Democrats now enjoy a 56-to-44 advantage. The GOP is expected to pick up no fewer than four seats, and perhaps as many as eight or nine.
Texas Sen. Phil Gramm, head of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, said his party would capture the Senate.
``Number one, the America people do not support Bill Clinton's programs and they want to shut down his taxing, spending and regulation,'' Gramm said, adding that the GOP has ``some margin to spare,'' depending on the close races.
``I think secondly that there is the general revolt against government. People are convinced that for 40 years government has asked them for more of their money, it's asked them to give up more of their freedom, but it hasn't solved their problems.''
On the House side, the odds are longer against the Republicans ousting the long-entrenched Democratic majority, but the possibility cannot be ruled out.
It would take a gain of 40 seats for the Republicans to reach a majority of 218 and make Rep. Newt Gingrich of Georgia the first Republican speaker of the House since Joseph W. Martin Jr. of Massachusetts gave up the gavel in 1955.
Gingrich all but claimed that sort of victory in an interview on Friday. He predicted a gain of at least 30 seats and as many as 75, adding, ``You have to really squeeze to get below 35.''
Whether or not they win formal control, Republicans will have greatly increased power in the next House.
With more than 200 seats for the first time since 1959, they would be able to block almost any legislation proposed by President Clinton, given the help of a handful of conservative Democrats.
Clinton predicted Sunday night that Democrats would ``do much better than the experts think'' in Tuesday's elections.
While saying he expected continued Democratic control of both chambers, Clinton offered on CNN's ``Larry King Special'' to cooperate with GOP leaders if they seize control.
``I will work with anybody who will work with me to move this country forward. My door is open, my hand is stretched out. I'm a builder, not a blamer,'' Clinton said.
Of the 124 seats identified by party officials, pollsters and political analysts as still in reach of either party, 89 were being defended by Democrats.
Of the 64 Democratic incumbents in close races, 17 are in contests that appear to be tossups, a group that includes such venerable leaders as House Speaker Thomas Foley of Washington state and Rep. Jack Brooks of Texas, the chairman of the Judiciary Committee. Worse yet for the Democrats, 11 others are trailing their Republican opponents.
In contrast, of 19 Republican incumbents in tough contests, only one seems to be trailing and two are in tossups. Republicans say it is possible that none of their incumbents will lose.
In the Senate, where 35 seats are on the ballot, the battle for a majority begins with nine open races: in Maine; Michigan; Ohio; Arizona; Tennessee and Oklahoma, where Democrats voluntarily surrendered their seats; and Wyoming, Missouri and Minnesota, where Republicans are retiring.
Polls suggested Republican candidates were well-positioned to win the Democratic seats in Ohio, Arizona, Maine and Tennessee, and hold onto GOP seats in Wyoming and Missouri.
Republican House and Senate gains on the scale predicted by analysts in both parties would have powerful long-range implications. They would leave the GOP better positioned than at any time in recent memory to take command of both houses of Congress - as well as the presidency - in 1996.
In the contests for governorships, late polling results suggest Republicans still have a plausible chance of winning in several major states now held by Democrats.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB