Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, November 9, 1994 TAG: 9411090106
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MARGARET EDDS STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND NOTE: BELOW LENGTH: Medium
What now for the man and his movement?
As Oliver North watched a three-year, $20 million dream evaporate Tuesday night, predictions for the future of perhaps the most polarizing and electrifying political figure in modern Virginia history ranged from ignominy to the presidency.
While devotees protested that North's horizons remain limitless, others predicted that his defeat amid a Republican tide and against a wounded opponent may end his prospects for office - at least in Virginia.
``It would be hard for him to make a case, losing this year in this election, that there's another one coming up in Virginia he could win,'' said M. Boyd Marcus, a GOP consultant. But, given the breadth of North's support nationwide, ``he might still run for the presidency'' in 1996, Marcus said.
Former state GOP Chairman Donald Huffman of Roanoke predicted North will run again for the Senate - this time against a fellow Republican who helped defeat him, Sen. John Warner.
Those closest to North discouraged talk of future bids for office. More likely, they said, the retired Marine officer whose Iran-Contra exploits captivated a nation will continue as a private citizen-commander in a movement for conservative social change.
``He's got his business, his books, his news column. He's got his farm,'' said John Hager, the GOP state treasurer and statewide co-chairman of the North for Senate campaign. ``He's not going to get but so disappointed.''
While it ``would probably be tough for Ollie to run for state office again,'' he remains ``a celebrity of national stature. He could do almost anything he wants,'' Hager said.
One certainty, said Mark Goodin, North's campaign consultant, is that the former candidate will continue to raise money and rally support for other Republicans. North's national mailing list of 200,000-plus names is one of the most valuable commodities in national GOP politics.
``You lick your wounds and go home. You realize you did the best job you could. ... This isn't his whole life,'' Goodin said, adding that there is ``very little'' chance North will run for office again.
Other Republicans with political ambitions were quick to argue that North's defeat does little to diminish the conservative movement that he represented.
``The movement doesn't go away,'' said Michael Farris, a national home-schooling advocate and former Republican candidate for lieutenant governor. North's defeat reflected ``unique circumstances, involving Iran-Contra,'' he said.
Farris, who also attributed his defeat in last year's lieutenant governor's race to Warner's lack of support, is expected to run for Warner's seat in 1996. Asked if North might run against him for the GOP Senate nomination, Farris smiled: ``That's possible.''
Others, however, argued that Tuesday's defeat in a Republican year limits the prospect of North's running against Warner.
``Republicans lost a golden opportunity to unseat a Democratic senator,'' said Thomas Morris, the president of Emory & Henry College and a political scientist. ``A large number of Republicans would not want to run the risk of associating themselves too closely with Oliver North.''
North mobilized an army of supporters whose passionate devotion seemed unparalleled in Virginia politics. As he toured the state in a Winnebago dubbed ``Rolling Thunder,'' he was greeted by people who told him they'd named children in his honor and hung his photo on their bedroom wall. One Richmond suburbanite last week asked: ``May I touch the hem of your garment?''
Analysts said North ran a near-perfect campaign during the early months of his bid, humanizing an image some had found threatening and solidifying much of the Republican base. He was aided by the near-invisibility of Robb during much of the summer and early fall.
North's juggernaut stalled as November approached, partly because of a series of gaffes. Probably the most serious, the analysts said, was an impromptu statement two weeks ago in Roanoke that Social Security might be made voluntary.
``His inexperience as a candidate showed,'' said a moderate Republican who did not work in North's campaign. ``He ran well through the opening stages,'' Marcus agreed. But North, who also encountered open opposition from Nancy Reagan and a newly unified Democratic effort featuring former Gov. Douglas Wilder, was less effective in the last three weeks, he said.
North's future probably remains with the power of his ideas, Morris said.
``He could become more of a movement leader,'' he said. Not unlike Jesse Jackson on the Democratic side, ``he could shift his focus to the Christian Coalition and try to bring about change in the larger social mores,'' he said.
by CNB