Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SATURDAY, November 12, 1994 TAG: 9411140067
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Here are some of the others and how they fared:
JOHN WARNER. Loser. The easiest call of all. Warner infuriated many Republican regulars, especially the new generation of conservative activists, by bolting the party to sponsor Marshall Coleman's independent candidacy. They're now determined to give Virginia's senior senator a public whipping when he seeks renomination and re-election in 1996.
Warner appears not to fathom the sea change that has taken place among the Republican rank-and-file since he last had to fight for a nomination, back in 1978. But he seems determined to fight.
Warner, once tied to Washington, has been increasingly visible around the state this year. Look for him to step up his public appearances in the year to come.
DOUGLAS WILDER. Winner. Another easy call. By abandoning his independent bid, and then endorsing archrival Sen. Charles Robb, Wilder almost single-handedly resuscitated Robb's moribund campaign. Wilder must be positively gleeful for Robb to be in his debt. By coming to Robb's aid, Wilder also worked his way back into the Democratic Party's good graces. Some even suggest Wilder may be a good candidate for Warner's Senate seat in 1996. Don't bet on it. But a nice ambassadorship might be in order.
HARRY WILSON and TONI-MICHELLE TRAVIS. Winners. Rookies of the year in the punditry community. Both were strongly promoted by their respective colleges' public-relations offices (Roanoke College in Wilson's case; George Mason University for Travis), and both wound up being quoted extensively, both in state and out.
Wilson made a special splash the last week of the campaign when he directed a poll that showed Robb leading by 4 percentage points. It was the first poll that showed Robb edging ahead of Republican nominee Oliver North and was picked up by CNN and USA Today, among others.
JIM UPDIKE. Winner. The election returns once again highlighted the realignment of rural Virginia, away from the Democrats and into Republican hands. That has set some Democratic strategists talking about the need to become competitive again in rural Virginia. What better way than to nominate a bona fide rural-based candidate such as Bedford County's fiery commonwealth's attorney for their 1997 ticket? Updike's 1993 quest for his party's nomination for attorney general was a late-starting, low-financed affair that few east of U.S. 29 noticed. If he starts now, he may find Democratic leaders more receptive this time around.
DON BEYER. ????? The Democratic lieutenant governor was regularly introduced to party functions this fall as "our next governor." He may have the 1997 nomination locked up already, but Beyer still will have to deal with Virginia's new electoral reality: Democrats have lost their rural base and have won recently only when Republicans make the mistake of nominating candidates who turn off suburbanites. If the Northern Virginia car dealer-turned-policy wonk has a plan on how to change that, he hasn't made it known. He may be a smart guy, but he sure doesn't look convincing with a shotgun on his shoulder.
LINDA MOORE. Winner. The Roanoke County-based political operative ran Rep. L.F. Payne's re-election bid, and her take-no-prisoners campaign tactics helped the 5th District Democrat keep afloat during a Republican tidal wave. This is the second year in a row she has directed a high-profile Democrat to victory in the midst of a Republican surge. Last year, she ran Beyer's re-election campaign. Her savvy may be one of the best things Beyer has going for him.
PAUL GOLDMAN. Winner.. The former Democratic Party state chairman once again proved himself one of his party's most insightful strategists - provided someone listens to him. For a time this year, that was a problem. The former Wilder adviser was on the outs with Wilder and wasn't working on his independent bid. Yet Robb staffers didn't trust him, because they regarded him suspiciously as a Wilder agent who played a key role in the Robb-Wilder feud.
Nevertheless, Goldman swallowed his pride and went to work as one of Robb's media advisers. In the final weeks of the campaign, it was Goldman who lobbied hard for Robb to take advantage of North's comment that Social Security should become voluntary. Robb's inner circle demurred for almost a week. But when they finally took Goldman's advice, Social Security become one of the turning points of the campaign.
MIKE FARRIS. ????? Farris said Warner's refusal to endorse him was the reason he lost last year's race for lieutenant governor. That alone was enough to set the Loudoun County lawyer and home-schooling advocate thinking about a grudge match in 1996 and make him a martyr to many Republican social conservatives. Now the role Warner played in North's defeat has outraged many GOP rank and file, as well - all of which augurs well for Farris' chances in a nomination fight.
But other Republicans look at the election returns and see another lesson: whenever they nominate a hard-right candidate in Virginia, they lose. That kind of analysis works against Farris. Moreover, all four congressional candidates closely aligned with Farris, including George Landrith in the 5th District and Steve Fast in the 9th, lost. Already, there's talk of other candidates emerging to oppose Warner - perhaps former federal budget director Jim Miller (who lost the Senate nomination to North) or state party Chairman Pat McSweeney.
RICK BOUCHER. Winner. OK, OK, Boucher was on the ballot, and he won re-election to Congress. But he may have won something else, too: A shot at the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in 1996. Boucher had eyed a Senate run in 1988 but deferred to Robb and seemed content to make a long-term career in the House. But that's when Democrats controlled the chamber. Now that he'll be in the minority, will a House career still look so rewarding?
If there's a bloody fight on the Republican side for the Senate nomination in '96, then the Democratic slot that year may look more appealing. Democrats, though, have few first-tier candidates available. Why not Boucher, who's smooth enough for the suburbs but also brings a Southwest Virginia base with him that Democrats need to regain? Republicans certainly have sized up Boucher's senatorial prospects: Warner has long considered him a potential rival, and state Sen. William Wampler Jr. of Bristol is said to be spreading the word that if Boucher runs in '96, Wampler's interested in the 9th District seat.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB