ROANOKE TIMES

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: THURSDAY, December 8, 1994                   TAG: 9412220007
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: B10   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: MAG POFF STAFF WRITER
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium


HARVEST-TIME ECONOMY ROSY

"October was just a real good month all around - in the state as well as in the Roanoke area," according to William F. Mezger, senior economist with the Virginia Employment Commission.

In the Roanoke metropolitan area, the unemployment rate in October held steady from the prior month at 3.6 percent. "Roanoke didn't change, but it was low to begin with," Mezger said. "That's a good, low rate for the Roanoke area."

It was the lowest rate among the state's major metropolitan areas, except for 3.2 percent in Northern Virginia, where high government employment keeps the jobless percentage low.

The number of people working in Roanoke in October stood at 137,100, up 1,900 from September. Mezger said the number of people employed has risen 3.9 percent over the year (from 132,000), better than the same rate in Northern Virginia.

"Everything in the Roanoke area looks pretty good at the present time," Mezger said.

Business and health services sectors are strong, he said, and manufacturing is showing growth. Construction employment remained high.

The state as a whole saw a record employment of 3,056,200. The previous record of 3,032,800 was set in September.

Unusually strong mid-fall employment expansions in trade, business services and private education helped achieve the record. Construction was also strong throughout the state as well as in Roanoke. That's unusual in October, Mezger said, speculating that construction projects started when interest rates were low and builders were racing to get under roof for the winter.

Retail employment was also up, Mezger said, as stores "got a jump on the Christmas season."

Virginia's unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage point to 4.5 percent in October, the third consecutive month in which unemployment declined by 0.2 percentage point, starting from 5.1 percent in July.

The number of unemployed workers was down 8,900 over the month to 153,900 in October.

October often marks the lowest unemployment rate of the year, Mezger said, as harvests peak, educational institutions build toward full employment for the new school year, and outside work such as construction remains at a high level before winter. Also, many tourists travel to Virginia during the month.

The current Virginia jobless rate of 4.5 percent is 1.3 percentage points below the United States unemployment rate of 5.8 percent for October.

Virginia's labor force - people working and available to work - was 6,800 smaller than the September labor force, a seasonal decline normal for that time of year. The shrinking labor force and rising employment combined to cause a decline in unemployment.

Except for Roanoke, which was static, the major metropolitan areas enjoyed lower unemployment rates in October. Fairfax, at 1.5 percent, had the lowest jobless rate. The highest was Dickenson County, with 14 percent.

New claims for unemployment benefits in October were 19,928, compared with 18,361 in September and 20,884 at the same time last year. The level was the lowest for the month of October in six years since October 1988.

Virginia's 309,700 production workers earned an average weekly wage of $474.89 in October, which was $6.06 below September but was $26.78 higher than October 1993.

The average work week, at 42.1 hours, was a half-hour less than September but 0.8 of an hour longer than last October.

The average hourly factory pay rate of $11.28 was a penny less than September but 43 cents an hour more than last year.

Mezger predicted that November may see a higher unemployment rate by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points because a number of people, mostly students, will enter the labor force to seek temporary holiday employment.

These extra workers usually are hired by December and, unless the weather turns severe, December's statewide unemployment rate typically is as good as October's.



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