Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, December 14, 1994 TAG: 9412140109
SECTION: CURRENT PAGE: NRV-7 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
SOURCE: MELISSA DeVAUGHN STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Glen Earthman, the Virginia Tech professor who conducted the research, told the Montgomery County School Board to expect a steady increase in student enrollment of about 1.3 percent each year. That number may not sound too dramatic, he said, but over the course of five years, that would mean approximately 600 new students - or the equivalent of a new school.
Elementary and middle school populations are growing the fastest, according to Earthman, at a rate of 2 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. High schools are growing at a little less than 1 percent.
Earthman's enrollment projections come on the heels of a Facility Use and Space Study which shows the need for major improvements in almost every county school, as well as construction of new schools in each of the four attendance areas - Shawsville, Auburn, Christiansburg and Blacksburg.
Earthman recommended that the board comply with the recommendations set forth by the facilities study and gave his outlook on the future of Montgomery County Schools.
"The growth over in the Riner-Bethel area is important, especially because Bethel is already at capacity now," Earthman said Tuesday. "Riner is having some good solid growth over there," a sizable increase over previous years, he said.
In 1992, Earthman said there were only seven new homes in one subdivision in Riner, none of which housed families with children. Now, according to county records, 17 subdivisions are either being built or planned for the Riner area.
In 1988, growth statistics showed 17 developments under way in Blacksburg, but research now indicates that there are no major developments in the town. Housing developments in Christiansburg have steadily increased from 11 in 1988 to the 14 developments now approved for construction. Growth in the Shawsville area has remained relatively stable.
Given these numbers, Earthman said it is imperative that the School Board "deal with the buildings that need improvements and build new schools where necessary.
"They need to push the capital improvement plan they've got and really address this growth," Earthman said.
School Board member Dick Edwards asked how Earthman's figures stack up against those of other planning agencies that may keep similar statistics.
Based on previous enrollment projections Earthman conducted in 1977, 1988 and 1992, Maintenance and Facilities Supervisor Larry Schoff said Earthman's figures were conservative and that the population is actually growing faster than predicted.
"The thing about these studies is it's just a snapshot of one period of time and when looking toward the future; it's simply a prediction," Earthman said Tuesday. "In two or three years we'll have to do this again."
by CNB