Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, January 8, 1995                   TAG: 9501060059
SECTION: BUSINESS                    PAGE: F-4   EDITION: METRO  
SOURCE: KIMBERLY N. MARTIN STAFF WRITER
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

MORE JOBS COME WITH LESS SECURITY

The bad news is: In 1995, that growth is expected to slow.

In 1994, Western Virginia created about 4,800 new jobs in Roanoke, and 2,000 of those jobs were in one of the country's fastest growing industries: business services, said Bill Mezger, the Virginia Employment Commission's senior economist.

Business services include companies that specialize in advertising, security, management and legal consultation and computer software and hardware.

The area's second largest creator of new jobs was the retail/trade sector. It created another 2,000 jobs last year. Other standouts were health services, construction and manufacturers.

Unlike years past, there were no major layoffs in 1994, he said. He classifies a major layoff as one involving more than 100 employees.

That may account for Roanoke's 4 percent unemployment rate, which is about as low as it was before the recession, Mezger said.

For the upcoming year, Mezger expects more of the same - just on a smaller scale.

"It's generally expected for growth nationally and in Virginia to slow mainly because the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates," Mezger said. "The national economy is growing at 4 percent and, in order to prevent inflation [from rising sharply], the Federal Reserve feels it doesn't need to go any higher than 2.5 percent growth, so they'll increase interest to slow the growth."

Mezger predicts that the unemployment rate will hover between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent in 1995, and job creation will slow from 4 percent in 1994 to about 3 percent, or 3,000 new jobs, in 1995.

Even with slower growth, he said, business services and health services will continue as the area's employment front-runners.

Job creation does not guarantee a feeling of job security among workers, said Walter Wise, the new president of the Roanoke United Central Labor Council.

"We had more inquiries from people interested in forming a union, which means more people are feeling unstable and insecure in their jobs," Wise said.

In 1994, garment workers at Tultex Corp. in Martinsville and maintenance workers at Lewis-Gale Hospital voted to be represented by unions. At several other companies, workers have begun union organization drives.

With the government playing a smaller role in the overall economy, Wise predicts an acceleration of union growth in 1995.

"I think the next couple of years will be a defining moment for labor," he said.

Two big contracts up for renegotiation in 1995 involve railroad and building trades workers.