Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, January 8, 1995 TAG: 9501090015
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: F-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JOHN LEVIN BUSINESS EDITOR
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
The annual survey conducted for the Roanoke Times & World-News shows:
Overall performance this year will be better for 55 percent of the region's companies and significantly better for another 18 percent. That comes atop 1994, a year when, according to 71 percent of the executives, conditions were better than any time in the previous three years.
There should be fewer layoffs and less downsizing this year, if predictions hold true. Nearly 53 percent of the companies expect no change in the size of their work forces, and 38 percent expect to grow.
Of the companies with growth plans, 1995 hiring will add between 1 and 5 percent to their work forces at 37 percent of the companies, and between 10 and 19 percent for another 30 percent. Nearly 79 percent of that hiring will be for production jobs.
Of the companies expecting to downsize, 63 percent said it would affect no more than 5 percent of their work forces, with half of those jobs trimmed from support staffs.
Expansion and other planned capital spending is anticipated by 49 percent of the companies responding.
Perhaps even more telling than those traditional measures of business confidence is the prediction for sales increases. A robust 77 percent of the business operators said they expect sales to grow in 1995; the largest portion of companies, 46 percent, expect that gain to be by 10 to 19 percent.
"That's a pretty optimistic outlook from the business community. It was more optimistic that I expected it to be," said Harry Wilson, director of the Center for Community Research at Roanoke College.
The center compiled results for the newspaper's annual survey of the region's businesses. For about 20 years, the Roanoke Times & World-News has polled the region's business leaders each fall about their assessments of the year's business results and the outlook for the coming 12 months.
Questionnaires were mailed in mid-November to 210 companies representing all lines of business in the region. Responses were sent to Roanoke College by 100 companies, a 48 percent return. The replies were confidential, with companies identifying themselves only by their business sector and size of work force. Roanoke College gave the newspaper only statistical summaries and Wilson's analysis.
Of the companies responding, nearly 40 percent came from companies identifying themselves as manufacturers. Another 10 percent were from retailers and wholesalers, 9 percent were from financial institutions, 8 percent from construction and real estate firms, 4 percent from those in transportation, 4 percent providing consumer services, and smaller portions from companies in agriculture, hospitality, insurance, mining and utilities. About 14 percent classified themselves as other lines of business.
Nearly a third of the firms said they employ between 100 and 499 people, 26 percent hire 50 or fewer and 17 percent employ 1,000 or more.
"My overall impression in reading the comments is that folks are pretty upbeat," Wilson said "People are looking for a pretty good year, on the whole."
Surprising, he said, was that executives expressing employment concerns fear a shortage of workers, rather than unemployment.
"It means there may be a lack of skilled workers for some types of businesses," Wilson said. "No one thought unemployment was too high. They seem to be having problems finding workers.
"A couple [of replies] also lamented the fact that we do not create high-tech, white-collar jobs around here."
Other major concerns for business deal with global and national issues. Asked which events this year will most strongly influence their companies' performance, 23 percent mentioned interest rates, 13 percent noted the general economy and 11 percent said the international economy.
Asked to identify the single most important issue that could influence the region's businesses, 19 percent listed tax rates, 16 percent mentioned environmental issues and 14 percent said government regulation.
"They don't like government, for the most part," Wilson said, "although they see the change in Washington as positive.
"A couple of the comments about local government were positive, but for the most part, they were negative.
"Some mentioned consolidation" of area governments. "But even when they didn't mention it specifically, they said they wanted more cooperation among agencies."
by CNB