Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: MONDAY, January 16, 1995 TAG: 9501170092
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JOEL TURNER STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Want to know what the American economy will be like for the next 30 years? What factor will affect the economy most?
Ask Schon Williams.
His research has shown that the United States is headed toward an unprecedented period of economic growth that will peak in 2010.
``The future is not as bleak as the news media makes it out to be,'' Williams said. ``They tend to focus on the next year or two instead of the long-term forecast.''
Williams also predicts that the nation will have an economic depression in about 2025. Many small businessess will fold because they won't be able to compete with bigger companies, he said.
So who is Schon Williams? You say you've never heard of him and his economic forecasts?
You're right. But you might someday.
Now, he's just a student at the Roanoke Valley Governor's School for Science and Technology.
On Saturday, Williams and 200 others at the school for academically talented students displayed their annual research projects.
The students' research covered topics such as AIDS, Roanoke River's water quality, earthquake predictions and the effect of light on time perception.
The students are required to do their own research, write reports on their findings and prepare visual presentations and exhibits.
In researching the effect of population trends on the economy, Williams found that the health of the economy is linked to the age of the population.
Data show that the peak spending level by individuals occurs about the age of 49, Williams said. This tends to be the age when people are nearing their career goals, sending their children to college, buying another house and spending on other items, he said.
Using economic statistics dating to 1920, Williams found that the economy rises and falls as the number of consumers around the age of 49 fluctuates. He said this is the premise for his economic forecasts.
Dozens of the exhibits at William Byrd Middle School dealt with social and physical sciences. Many used videos and computers.
Richard Shelly, director of the Governor's School, said the students have been working on the research projects since September. They also worked on them during the break between the first and second semesters.
Shelly said the students must obtain approval from their instructors and confer with them as the projects proceed. He said the students study the fundamentals of research before they began their projects.
The research projects are part of the required curriculum at the Governor's School, where advanced students from seven school systems in the Roanoke Valley and adjoining localities go to learn.
Several projects focused on environmental issues such as pollution and the water quality of streams in Western Virginia.
During her research into the effects of heavy metals such as silver, lead and nickel, Abby Fifer said she found that the Roanoke River has above-normal levels of metals at a few places.
Fifer researched the effect of metals on the vinegar eel, a microscopic organism that is used for such tests. She found that the metals can contaminate streams and get into the food chain.
Other students had research projects in medicine, health, botany, zoology, chemistry, physics and computer science.
Two students studied the physical aspects of Roanoke, such as the architecture in the city during the industrial age - from its beginnings to 1910.
The students, Theresa Mai and Leeanna White, found that most of Roanoke's early architecture tended to be more basic and efficient rather than fancy and intricate. They said Roanoke's architecture was typical for Southern cities during the industrial age.
The exhibits were judged by college teachers and professional people in different categories. The judges also made suggestions on how projects could be improved.
by CNB