Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, January 22, 1995 TAG: 9501200019
SECTION: ECONOMY PAGE: 3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MAG POFF STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Dalhouse, chairman of First Union National Bank of Virginia, called the trade treaties "incredibly good news" that will have a major historical significance for business. "There's been nothing like that in the history of the world," he said.
Western Virginia is dealing in a global economy, Dalhouse pointed out. Because of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, he said, some jobs will be lost and others redistributed, but five times as many jobs will be created. And consumers will pay an average of $1,700 less each year for imported items.
Second on the national scene, he said, "the U.S. economy is in the middle of a very powerful business cycle," with every region on the rebound and the Southeast enjoying the results of a strong economy. In fact, he said, every industrialized nation in the world is in an economic resurgence. Combined with free trade, the cycle will last to the next century, and Western Virginia will "ride the train like nothing seen in our lifetimes."
The next five years, he said, will see "very significant progress" in productivity, new products, sales, profits and job creation. Dalhouse said his only concern is inflation, but he thinks that can be contained.
He sees no slowdown in the "vigorous and powerful" business cycle for at least three years and maybe longer and "that augurs well for Virginia and Western Virginia."
Third, the political climate has improved with Republicans in charge in Washington and Richmond, "as misguided as their social programs seem to me." Government can either thwart or enhance market forces, Dalhouse said, and Republicans generally stand for less regulation, less government intrusion and even less taxes.
This should enhance profits and productivity, he said, and it should help create jobs. "The political environment seems fortunately in sync with the economic momentum."
In Virginia, he said, a significant development has taken place in the hiring of Wayne Sterling - "a world-class professional" - to head the economic development division. The department, Dalhouse said, will now compete armed with professionalism, competence and intensity.
He predicted that the department will see that businesses here are nurtured and encouraged to expand, in addition to competing for new industry.
On the local scene, he said, economic development has come together better than many people dreamed five years ago. He cited the New Century Council, Virginia Tech, the coal industry, the Roanoke Valley Economic Development Partnership and Hotel Roanoke and Conference Center as examples of this cooperation.
The Regional Partnership, he said, has had far greater impact than skeptics thought when it was first proposed. As important as the jobs it created, he said, is the fact of its existence as a practical-minded regional planning organization.
"Regionalism is clearly the wave of the future in Virginia," Dalhouse said. If annexation laws won't change, then a regional development plan is essential. The state points to this region's group as a model for other areas.
The partnership's weakness is its thin funding, Dalhouse said. The staff does a good job with the resources available, he added, but the region risks losing momentum through inadequate funding in an era of opportunity.
The New Century Council is another example of regional thinking that, to Dalhouse, has enormous political value. It makes the region more broadly focused and organized.
At the turn of the century, Dalhouse predicted, Virginia Tech will be a world-class research university. Its partnership with the Department of Transportation and General Motors will produce Virginia's first "smart road" by then.
Dalhouse said Virginia Tech will have a major impact on the budding fiber-optics industry in this area, creating new jobs and new technology.
He said Tech is not recognized in its role as one of the major players in the economy of Western Virginia. Its special relationship with Roanoke will broaden and deepen to the visible benefit of the entire region.
Hotel Roanoke and its adjacent Conference Center will have significant impact on the economy and will exemplify the Roanoke-Tech relationship, Dalhouse said. The complex "is going to be a wonderful facility to showcase this community to people around the nation," and it will give local people a broader market than in the past.
Western Virginia has always looked to coal as an underlying economic support, even though the region will deliver less coal in the future than it once did, Dalhouse said.
He believes the coalfield counties will diversify in coming years, adding new businesses, such as prisons. A change in the coalfield economy will bring health and vitality to the entire region, especially since Norfolk Southern Corp. hauls so much coal and freight in that area.
Three problems will still be around at the turn of the century, according to Dalhouse.
One is fragmentation of governments, especially in the Roanoke Valley. Without the regional partnership, he said, the state would have a hard time dealing with industrial prospects.
Another is leadership. Dalhouse said most of the valley's older leaders have died or stepped aside and few people have stepped forward to fill the void. An exception, he said, is Tom Robertson, president of Carilion Health System, Roanoke-based operator of hospitals and other medical facilities.
Dalhouse attributed the dearth of leadership in part to lack of corporate headquarters in the region. That means there are fewer decision-makers with access to capital.
Finally, Dalhouse is concerned about the dichotomy between cities and suburbs, which depend on each other for survival.
He hopes for some improvement in five years, but for now cities are in stress and concerned about crime, poverty and a decreasing population. And the suburbs, he said, can't be healthy if their central cities are sick.
Roanoke is remarkably healthy considering the extent of the problems, and Dalhouse hopes that people will look for solutions to the problem by the year 2000.
by CNB