Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, February 2, 1995 TAG: 9502020036
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: VIRGINIA EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: STEPHEN FOSTER STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: BLACKSBURG LENGTH: Long
This weekend, Ken Kostura very well could be the man from whom the warning comes.
Next spring, when the thunderheads rumble in, the rain pours down and bolts of lightning streak across the sky, perhaps Jeff Stewart will sound the clarion to take cover.
Wednesday, Kostura, Stewart and the other meteorologists at the National Weather Service station in Blacksburg were handed the responsibility for warning the region whenever severe weather - flash floods, tornados, hail storms and the like - is likely.
The station has early warning, short-term forecast responsibility for 38 counties in Southwest Virginia and parts of North Carolina and West Virginia - a region that had been overseen in pieces by stations in Charleston, W.Va.; Raleigh, N.C.; and Sterling.
At 10:24 a.m. Wednesday, Stewart sent out the first forecast, targeting the New River Valley, Roanoke and the rest of the region:
``...Clouds will be on the increase through the early afternoon as a cold front approaches the Appalachians. Temperatures will climb into the low to middle 40s by 3 p.m....''
Put simply, no weather to speak of. Wednesday dawned clear and crisp, with a few wisps of clouds in the sky, snow melting on the ground and barely enough breeze to redden cheeks. After months of practice runs and setting up shop, though, Stewart - who transferred from Charlotte, N.C., in August just after the station started up - said it was a relief to finally be in business.
``If severe weather were happening today, we could handle it,'' said Michael Emlaw, the warning-coordination meteorologist at the station.
A half-eaten yellow cake with chocolate icing sat in the middle of the room. Emlaw pointed out the facility's computers surrounding it. Here was one graphically displaying forecast weather patterns, here were satellite pictures, here were displays of wind speeds and cloud cover recorded by the Doppler radar perched upon a hilltop in Floyd County.
A TV hanging from the ceiling played The Weather Channel silently. Without reservation, Emlaw admitted, ``that provides us a lot of help.''
Technicians worked off to the side setting up the weather radio system. Data-acquisitions program manager Dave Keller tinkered with the weather-measuring instruments and hydrogen balloons the station will begin launching in April. Meteorologist-in-charge John Wright Jr., a 21-year veteran of the service, fielded calls from television stations asking for interviews.
Mild enough duties for now, but soon will come the day when the expertise of the station's handlers will be called on.
When that happens, it might be Stewart watching the screen, with another person typing in a flash-flood or thunderstorm warning.
Donato Cacciapaglia, a hydro-meteorological technician who transferred from Roanoke, may be manning the weather radio station, sending out forecasts and warnings. Perhaps Kostura, a meteorologist who last worked in Louisville, Ky., will be calling emergency operations and warning centers in Virginia, North Carolina and West Virginia from three phones set up for the singular purpose of making sure authorities are receiving weather information.
When storms strike, ``it's unbelievably busy here,'' Stewart said, making a comparison to the strategic alert status of the national defense system. ``It goes from nothing to ... DEFCON 4 in no time.''
While winter weather might be made for snowmen and summer showers for rainbows, it also might mean life-threatening tornados, blizzards and - what Emlaw said is the region's greatest threat - flash floods.
The human factor in forecasting is important, from getting warnings sent out quickly to knowing the computers' shortcomings and adjusting predictions accordingly. Emlaw recalled conducting damage surveys after a tornado and being amazed that anyone survived. When it comes to realizing his responsibility, he said, ``that really hits home.''
For now, the Blacksburg station is responsible only for the short term, a few-hours-into-the-future forecasts, and not long-range looks into weather patterns. That probably will come in about five years, Emlaw said, although it doesn't mean the station's staff can't unofficially predict what's to come a few days down the line.
Unofficially, Emlaw looked at a computer display and said the lines on the map meant there's a good chance that Southwest Virginia will get snowed in again this weekend.
``Not a problem,'' Kostura said. ``I'm working Saturday.''
by CNB