Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SUNDAY, February 5, 1995 TAG: 9502060015
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
Western Virginia is shaping up as a key battleground in this fall's General Assembly elections.
Even before this year's legislative session reaches its halfway point in Richmond, at least five contested races for the state Senate or the House of Delegates are in the works back home - and each offers a telling glimpse into the various points each party hopes to prove at the ballot box in November.
Republicans look at Western Virginia and see a region that's been trending GOP in recent years, mostly because they've been winning in rural, conservative districts long represented by Democrats.
Over the past six years, Republicans have picked up four legislative seats in the region - the ones now held by Sen. Brandon Bell of Roanoke County, Sen. Malfourd "Bo" Trumbo of Fincastle, Del. Allen Dudley of Rocky Mount and Del. Tommy Baker of Radford.
They think it's only natural that they'll pick up more here this fall by contending that Democrats are blocking Gov. George Allen's proposed tax cuts and spending cuts.
"You can't buck a trend," said Trixie Averill, a GOP leader from Roanoke County. "We've got a very popular governor with a very popular theme - less government and less spending. That's the theme the average taxpayer wants to hear."
Democrats, though, believe the best way to hold onto their legislative majorities is by taking the offensive - and arguing that Allen's budget proposals would hurt more than they'd help.
They also think that argument will resonate better in Western Virginia than anywhere else.
The party's chief spokeswoman, Gail Nardi, cites the region's innate caution, which she believes is a more potent force than its conservatism. "The Roanoke Valley and Southwest Virginia has traditionally been the rudder which has kept Virginia from steering in a radical course."
Virginia Tech political analyst Bob Denton believes a concentration of high-profile budget cuts in the region - from the Hotel Roanoke to the Virginia Cooperative Extension Service to Radford University's College of Global Studies - will go a long way toward helping Democrats make their case.
"It's my understanding that Allen and his advisers were really surprised by the reaction of some of the people from this region," Denton said. "They really do not understand the disproportionate impact to this region. George Allen has handed the Democrats a wonderful club to beat members of his own party over the head with."
Already, one Democratic legislator high on the GOP hit list, Sen. Madison Marye of Shawsville, has chortled that Allen's budget cuts "give me something to run on."
If Marye's right, the legislative races set up Western Virginia as a critical testing ground, pitting the Republicans' ideological platform of tax cuts and spending cuts against the Democrats' pitch that Virginia can't afford Allen's agenda.
"I think there'll be a fairly large number of contested races," said one of the most outspoken Democrats, Roanoke Del. Clifton "Chip" Woodrum. "The governor's budget has stirred up a lot of people on the other side."
Averill, the Republican activist, believes Western Virginia's legislative races will attract statewide attention for another reason: "Cranwell."
As in Richard Cranwell, the house majority leader from Roanoke County who has rallied dispirited Democrats into opposing Allen outright.
"Cranwell has been such a thorn in Allen's side," Averill said. "He is the archnemesis at this point." He's also active behind the scenes in recruiting and advising Democratic candidates, especially in Western Virginia.
"He'll have his finger on the pulse of every race out here," Averill said. "That is going to make them high profile. He's a lightning rod, most assuredly. Whenever we hear the name 'Cranwell,' a red flag goes up."
Here's a look at some of the incumbents in Western Virginia each party is targeting, and why:
Sen. Brandon Bell, R-Roanoke County. The Democratic challenge to the freshman Republican representing Roanoke and most of Roanoke County promises to be the premier race in the region and perhaps the state.
Bell has eagerly embraced Allen's program, even sponsoring his bill to allow private groups to operate quasi-independent "charter schools" within the public school system.
Democrats can't wait to contend that he hasn't been an effective spokesman for the region.
A low-key struggle for the Democratic nomination appears to be nearing its end. Roanoke Vice Mayor John Edwards is expected to announce his candidacy soon. He could be the consensus pick now that Roanoke County Supervisor Bob Johnson is out of the picture.
State Sen. Madison Marye, D-Shawsville. Marye's district, which sprawls from Montgomery County to Smyth County, is the sort of rural district where Republicans have been knocking off Democrats lately.
No wonder at least three Republicans have shown an interest in challenging the 69-year-old, five-term legislator. Radford clothier and former congressional candidate Gary Weddle has already announced his candidacy. Radford lawyer Jimmy Turk expects to announce his later this month. Blacksburg real-estate broker Pat Cupp also is considering a bid.
Del. Clifton "Chip" Woodrum, D-Roanoke. Woodrum has rarely drawn opposition since he was elected in 1979. But this year, three Republicans have talked about opposing him.
Roanoke City Councilman Delvis "Mac" McCadden has since taken his name out of the running, citing personal reasons and a distaste for the partisan bickering in Richmond.
However, both physician Newell Falkinburg, a specialist in kidney diseases and high-blood pressure, and Jim Lowe, an engineer and lawyer with the architectural firm of Hayes Seay Mattern & Mattern, say they're willing to run.
Some Republicans believe they may even see a contest, albeit a friendly one, for the nomination. Woodrum's emergence as a leading Allen critic has spurred many GOP activists to find a strong opponent.
"Chip Woodrum is one of the old breed, tax-and-spend, liberal Democrats that people are fed up with," contends Ron Adkins, a Roanoke County party leader. "That's one of the hot buttons that's got people going."
Del. Jim Shuler, D-Blacksburg. Shuler represents most of Montgomery County and part of Giles County - a rural district that Republicans believe is ripe for turnover, much like Marye's. Shuler also is a freshman, which makes him even more of an attractive target.
Larry Linkous, a Blacksburg businessman and chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Supervisors, announced last week that he'll seek the GOP nomination.
Del. Allen Dudley, R-Rocky Mount. Dudley's district - which covers most of Franklin County, Floyd County, part of Pittsylvania County and a single precinct in Bedford County - is the flip side of the Shuler and Marye contests. Here's a rural district that's now in Republican hands, and which Democrats would dearly love to take back.
Dudley was an upset winner in the Allen landslide two years ago, and Democrats want to do to Dudley the same thing they're planning to do to Bell - paint him as both ineffective and an ideologue.
The names of several prospective candidates have been floated, most notably that of Billy Overton, a captain in the Franklin County Sheriff's Office and the son of longtime Sheriff W.Q. "Quint" Overton.
Other races also may materialize in Western Virginia. Republicans, for instance, are intent on finding an opponent for Cranwell, if for no other reason than to try to pin down the Democrats' top strategist and keep him busy defending his own turf.
Western Virginia is hardly alone in seeing challengers already lining up for the November elections. With the stakes so high - Republicans need only three more seats in the Senate and four in the House to win control - both parties have stepped up recruitment efforts statewide.
"There'll be very little territory uncontested," University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato said. "I think we'll see a record number of candidates on both sides. What's interesting about Western Virginia is it's become very, very competitive. There are very few safe districts left."
Staff writers Brian Kelley and Todd Jackson contributed to this report.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB