
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: TUESDAY, February 21, 1995                   TAG: 9502220048
SECTION: EDITORIAL                    PAGE: A-4   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: 
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

PREVENTION

THE PREDICTIONS keep coming: Expect a wave of crime and violence as the number of individuals in the crime-prone age - teen-agers - grows in the next couple of years, and continues to grow into the next century.

The population trends were cited by Gov. George Allen last year in seeking support for his plan to abolish the parole system and build more prisons. But the trends can also be used to argue for more gun control and drug-abuse prevention programs - as a panel of criminal-studies experts did in Atlanta last week at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The speakers described an imminent ``demographic double whammy.''

Currently, the teen population is low, noted Dr. James Alan Fox, dean of the College of Criminal Justice at Northeastern University at Boston. But 40 million children younger than 10 are about to join the teen ranks. Since 1985, there has been a doubling of juvenile homicides with guns, of the juvenile homicide rate generally, and of arrest rates for drug offenses among nonwhite juveniles. While the homicide rate is constant or declining in all other age groups, it has increased significantly among those in their middle teens to early 20s.

This suggests that not only are today's violent teen-agers maturing into even more violent young adults; they will be replaced by a larger group of potentially violent teen-agers.

``What are we doing to step in and make sure that these kids gain the kind of supervision and direction that they need?'' asked Fox. ``Unless we act today, I truly believe we may have a blood bath in about 10 years when all these kids grow up.''

What, indeed, is Gov. Allen doing, besides planning to build prisons? What is the General Assembly doing, besides agreeing on a $96-million bond package for prison construction?

Meanwhile, the same legislative negotiators are haggling over a paltry $1.8 million to continue funding for a network of Offices on Youth, including one in Roanoke. The mission of these small agencies - each receives about $30,000 a year from the state - is to intervene in the lives of troubled young people and help prevent them from turning to crime, drugs and wasted futures.

Granted, the program has a spotty record. Some local offices, a state study found, have been ineffective.

But others were found effective or fairly effective. Often using makeshift offices and staffs, the program represents one of the few efforts by the state to prevent crime among teen-agers.

Rather than abandon the effort, the governor and the legislators should consider ways to raise its overall performance.

by CNB