Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, March 15, 1995 TAG: 9503150036
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: B1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JACK BOGACZYK
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
It's difficult to do that, but every year since 1983, it's been worth it. Writing 1-2-3 is easy. No guts, no glory. In each of the last 12 NCAA Tournaments, at least one team with a regional seed of 10 or lower has reached the Sweet 16 regional semifinals.
Will it happen this year? How do Louisville, Temple, Texas, Penn, Xavier or Ball State sound? You just have to find the right one. The lucky number seems to be 12.
A No.12 seed has reached the final 16 every year since 1990. Since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985, a 12 has made it every year except 1988 and '89. And those tournaments sent a 13 and 11 to the regional semifinals ('88) and an 11 that far the next year. No teens team has reached the Sweet 16 since Richmond, No.13 in '88.
Picking a 12 isn't March madness. It was Tulsa last year, George Washington in '93, New Mexico State in '92, Eastern Michigan in '91 and Ball State in '90. David Letterman U. is back again this year with the same seed, as are Mid-American Conference foe Miami of Ohio, Penn and Santa Clara.
Their first-round opponents, respectively, are Arizona State, Arizona, Alabama and Mississippi State. Then, if the favorites in the 4-13 matchups win, the Dribbling Dozens probably would have to get past Oklahoma, Virginia, Oklahoma State and Utah to reach the Sweet 16. That's not likely. What happens often is a 12 makes the round of 16 by beating a 13.
GW did that in '93, stopping Southern (which had upset Georgia Tech in the first round). New Mexico State did it the year before, beating Southwestern Louisiana after the Cajuns raged past Oklahoma. In '91, Eastern Michigan beat 13 seed Penn State, which had packed UCLA's bags.
The Sweet 16 is as far as you take these sneakered Cinderellas. Since 1983, only twice have teams with seeds higher than No. 10 reached a regional championship game - Loyola Marymount in 1990 and LSU in '86. Each was a No. 11. LSU went on to the Final Four.
The high seeds to like this year? Louisville is No. 11 in the Midwest. The Cardinals' rabid rivalry renewal with Memphis - their first meeting since the 1991 Metro Conference tournament semifinals at the Roanoke Civic Center - might be the most intriguing first-round game in the tourney.
The pick here has the Cardinals in the Midwest Regional with Kansas, Arkansas and UVa. Want an upset to consider besides Louisville? How about Miami, playing a half-hour from home in Dayton, over Arizona. Southern Illinois should trouble Syracuse, too.
The last time the NCAA Midwest passed through Dayton Arena (1992), the regional seed survivors were 4-6-7-9. This time, that would be Virginia, Memphis, Syracuse and Michigan. The top won't topple so easy this year.
In the Southeast, Florida over Iowa State is the most likely upset. If Georgetown beats Xavier, the Hoyas could bring an early retirement to Michigan State coach Jud Heathcote in round two. Kentucky, Arizona State, Georgetown and North Carolina sounds like a good regional field.
If the Southeast is the toughest region - roller-coaster Georgetown a sixth seed? - then the East is the easiest. Illinois is a too-low No. 11 that could clip sixth seed Tulsa. The seeds may say it, but Stanford over UNC Charlotte would be no upset. The Meadowlands survivors should be Wake Forest, Alabama, Villanova and Massachusetts.
In the West, UCLA is the best team, but the Bruins must exorcise their own NCAA demons along with Indiana's Bobby Knight on Sunday. Don't be surprised if No. 11 Texas ousts Oregon. If Louisville-Memphis is the most attractive first-round game, Indiana-Missouri in the West isn't far behind, and Cincinnati-Temple is a push - and a shove. The West Regional players should be UCLA, Utah, Maryland and Connecticut.
And if all of these suggestions and selections survive the weekend, I'll be as surprised as you.
Keywords:
BASKETBALL
by CNB