ROANOKE TIMES

                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: SUNDAY, March 19, 1995                   TAG: 9503220036
SECTION: EDITORIAL                    PAGE: G-2   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: 
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium


MEXICO

IT'S NOT exactly a traditional formula for political success. In his first three months in office, Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo has seen:

His country plunge into its most severe economic crisis in more than a decade, featuring a huge devaluation of the peso and flight of foreign capital.

The jailing of the brother of Zedillo's predecessor in the presidency (a fellow member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party), on charges of conspiring to assassinate a presidential candidate.

The announcement of grim austerity measures guaranteed to increase unemployment before making much of a dent against an inflation rate now running around 40 percent.

Harsh conditions imposed by the Clinton administration on a $20 billion package of U.S. loan guarantees - a blow to Mexico's pride, as well as to its people's short-term buying power.

Continued equivocation on how to respond to a peasant rebellion in a southern state.

The exile, or flight, of the disgraced former president, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, amid accusations that his administration at least covered up the assassination of the presidential candidate, and amid clear evidence that Salinas artificially propped up the peso last year, for political reasons, thereby prompting its recent collapse in global markets.

In the face of all these setbacks - both for Mexico and for its heady dreams of quick ascension into the company of first-class economies with the help of foreign trade and investment - Zedillo's political courage is winning high marks. But the necessary austerity he's imposing is likely to increase the political turmoil and sense of crisis, at least for a while.

The economic crisis was precipitated, in part, by foreign investors who demand uninterrupted short-term gains. Mexico's emergence from crisis will require not only bitter economic medicine and the imposition of democratic and legal accountability on the old ruling class. Big supplies of patience also will be needed.



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