Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: TUESDAY, April 11, 1995 TAG: 9504120012
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A7 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DONALD NUECHTERLEIN
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Moscow makes no secret that it expects Clinton to be present for its victory celebration on May 9 and will be offended if the president stays away. The Kremlin even scrapped plans for a military parade in Red Square to accommodate Clinton's preference for a nonmilitary commemoration of the victory over Nazi Germany,
Nevertheless, large disagreements between Washington and Moscow recently emerged and raise a question whether this is the right time for the American president to be embracing the Russian president in Moscow.
Here are the contentious issues:
Chechnya. The Russian army botched its drive to subdue this break-away section of the Russian federation, and Yeltsin faces international condemnation for allowing the killing of thousands of civilians in this brutal war. Clinton said he would not visit Moscow unless the fighting was stopped. It has not yet ended.
NATO membership. The United States and most NATO allies want to expand their defense alliance eastward to include Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Moscow opposes this plan, claiming it casts Russia in the role of threat to its neighbors. Clinton is pushing NATO for a decision by the end of the year.
Nuclear assistance to Iran. Russia plans to sell nuclear reactors to Iran for its new power plants. Washington protests that it will help Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Moscow denies it, claiming this is just a commercial deal.
Bosnia. Despite efforts by Russia, United States, Britain, Germany and France to arrange a settlement of the Bosnian civil war, a current cease-fire is breaking down and major fighting may break out this spring. Moscow has historical ties to Serbia and will object if NATO adopts a stronger role against the Serbs in Bosnia. If new fighting breaks out, NATO and Moscow could be on opposing sides.
The danger for Clinton in traveling to Moscow now is that Yeltsin may decide to confront him publicly on these issues, as he did in Budapest last fall on NATO expansion. If Yeltsin does, Clinton will be obliged to back down, or to tell Yeltsin bluntly that Russia lost the Cold War and will not get a veto over U.S. policy in Eastern Europe.
Still, there are valid reasons why Clinton should make this trip, despite Russian behavior in Chechnya and opposition to NATO expansion.
Face-to-face discussions between the two presidents is more likely to achieve positive results than negotiations between their foreign ministers. Andrei Kozyrev, Russia's minister, said after his meeting with Secretary of State Warren Christopher last week that "the honeymoon has come to an end."
That kind of talk may be designed for nationalist opinion back home, but it also suggests a tougher line that only Yeltsin can soften. Clinton is betting Yeltsin will do so.
Also, if the White House has decided to push for NATO's expansion regardless of Russian objections, it is preferable that Clinton convey this message personally and try to reassure Yeltsin by offering a separate non-aggression pact.
If the Clinton administration anticipates that the war in Bosnia will heat up this spring and NATO may be required to take a stronger role, Clinton needs to reach an understanding with Yeltsin to avoid clashes that may involve Russian peacekeeping forces in that area.
Another possible motivation for Clinton to go to Moscow this spring is to improve his image as foreign-policy president. While his domestic priorities are discarded by a Republican-dominated Congress, Clinton may believe his trips abroad will gain him strong media attention which he needs in the run-up to the 1996 presidential election.
He would not be the first president to use foreign policy as an image-booster. It did wonders for Richard Nixon in 1972.
Donald Nuechterlein, a Charlottesville political scientist, is author of "America recommitted: U.S. National Interests in a Restructured World."
by CNB