Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: TUESDAY, May 9, 1995 TAG: 9505090099
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: B-6 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JEFF STURGEON STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Joblessness in the Roanoke metropolitan area hit a five-year low in March, when the unemployment rate dropped to 3 percent, state labor officials said Monday.
But William Mezger, senior economist of the Virginia Employment Commission, predicted the jobs expansion will cool within a year.
The Roanoke area, as a major commerce and health care center for Western Virginia, increased its job supply about 5 percent, or 6,000 jobs, in the past year. Mezger said interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will slow that growth by a percentage point or so by this time next year.
"You're just very near to the top of the business cycle right now," Mezger said. "There will be some slowing. We will still have growth."
To be sure, the Virginia economy has yet to be roped in by the central bank's lasso. Growth of nonfarm jobs, at 3 percent last year, was forecast to be 2 percent this year, but averaged 4 percent during the January-March quarter, preliminary figures show.
In the Roanoke metro area, which consists of the cities of Roanoke and Salem and Roanoke and Botetourt counties, unemployment fell from 3.5 percent in February and 3.9 percent in March 1994.
The new rate of 3 percent was the lowest since April 1990, when the benchmark stood at 2.4 percent of the labor force.
The ranks of the unemployed have fallen to 4,000 people from 4,640 in February and 4,910 in March 1994. The number of employed people has risen to 129,160 from 127,730 in February and 122,130 in March 1994.
by CNB