
                         Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: WEDNESDAY, May 24, 1995                   TAG: 9505240070
SECTION: VIRGINIA                    PAGE: C-1   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: RICHMOND                                LENGTH: Medium

ALLEN PLAN WILL EMPLOY FEWER THAN PREDICTED

Internal documents prepared by the Allen administration show the governor's welfare reform program would put to work half as many people as predicted publicly, The Washington Post reported today.

For months, Gov. George Allen's aides have said the plan would place about 49,000 of 74,000 welfare recipients, or roughly two-thirds of the state caseload, in private business or community service jobs. But according to records obtained this week, state budget analysts privately projected that 26,000 people actually would go to work by 1999.

The higher figures have bolstered Allen's efforts to portray his welfare overhaul as the toughest and most ambitious in the nation.

Critics of the plan have complained that the administration has played fast and loose with the numbers and is ill-prepared to turn rhetoric into reality when the plan takes effect July 1.

``From this administration, it really doesn't surprise me at all,'' said Del. David Brickley of Woodbridge, one of the leading advocates of welfare revision among Democratic state legislators. ``I let some of these numbers go in one ear and out the other. ... I take it all with a grain of salt.''

Sen. Joseph Gartlan Jr., D-Fairfax, perhaps the staunchest opponent of Allen's welfare program, called his public figures ``ideologically inspired guesswork.''

``I've been very skeptical of their numbers in the first place because I don't know what methodology they're using to get them,'' Gartlan said.

Allen aides on Tuesday drew a distinction between welfare recipients being required to work and those who actually will go to work.

They said that while the lower figure was mentioned at least once publicly in a briefing in December, they have used the higher estimate in the past five months because it accurately represents how many people will be covered by the work requirement under the law.

The administration saw no need, they said, to explain that nearly half of those people typically drop off public assistance before they would be forced to get a job or forfeit their benefits.

``I don't think that that changes anything about the program,'' Allen press secretary Ken Stroupe said of the conflicting numbers. ``It is the most comprehensive and most sweeping welfare-to-work program of any in the nation. It is a statement of fact that 48,548 people will be required to work.''

But many of those required to find jobs never will do so, he acknowledged, and if they choose to leave the welfare rolls, so be it.

by CNB