Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: MONDAY, May 29, 1995                   TAG: 9506010001
SECTION: EDITORIALS                    PAGE: A-6   EDITION: HOLIDAY 
SOURCE: DAVID L. FOSTER
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Long

THE SO-CALLED 'CRISIS' OF GLOBAL WARMING IS A LOT OF HOOEY

Backed by such a formidable alliance, the global-warming scare gathered sufficient momentum that it took a while to overcome. But eventually climatologists, meteorologists and other scientists began to speak up, to question the accepted dogma, and to present data that showed a lack of predicted global warming. The global-circulation computer models offered by global-warming supporters eventually were shown to be faulty. They didn't even explain past temperature trends satisfactorily, much less provide a basis for future projections.

Professor Patrick J. Michaels at the University of Virginia has led efforts to tell the truth about global climate change. His book, ``Sound and Fury, the Science and Politics of Global Warming,'' was a thorough yet readable treatment of the subject, including presentation of data developed over the past several decades by orbiting weather satellites. Another good source of balanced information on global climate trends is the quarterly ``World Climate Review'' published by the Department of Environmental Sciences at UVa.

Thus, I was annoyed to see the April 9 Associated Press news analysis ``Global warming? Emphatic `yes'; plan for future? `No'.'' It wasn't an analysis, but unattributed opinion more suited to the Commentary page than your news pages. The unidentified writer indulges in all the shopworn shibboleths of the environmental lobby, including expanding deserts, disappearing ecosystems, and increasing storm violence and frequency. ``Global warming must be halted or sea levels will rise,'' says the article. It goes on in its alarmist way to characterize the United Nation's Climate Conference in Berlin this way: ``The 900 delegates from nearly 120 nations were well aware that the 3.2 foot rise in sea levels predicted by 2100 would inundate areas inhabited today by more that 94 million people.''

The writer says ``the world remains addicted to fossil-fuel energy,'' and is amazed that conference delegates weren't more decisive in setting further cuts in ``emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that result from burning oil and coal.'' Yet the fact that 900 persons justified an international junket and an all-day conference to discuss a nonexistent problem is far more amazing, and that they could agree on few meaningful steps to solve the ``problem'' is hardly surprising at all.

Almost 60 percent of electricity nationwide comes from burning coal, and more if the other fossil fuels of oil and gas are included. In an area such as Southwest Virginia, where the coal industry is vital to our economy and where 100 percent of electricity comes from coal, it's important to understand fossil fuels, and to put them in proper perspective with respect to greenhouse gases.

The Earth's atmosphere has a protective greenhouse effect on our planet. Life wouldn't be possible without it. The largest component of greenhouse gas is water vapor - about 90 percent - that isn't appreciably affected by human activity. The balance is composed roughly evenly by carbon dioxide and a group of other gases such as methane and nitrogen oxides. Carbon dioxide can be affected by human activity, mainly combustion, but it is also subject to unpredictable fluctuations due to volcanic eruptions over which we have no control. Scientific data show that levels of carbon dioxide have risen since the start of the industrial revolution. But because all plant life on the planet breathes carbon dioxide, some studies suggest that increased carbon-dioxide levels may even prove beneficial in enhanced growth of plants, trees and crops.

The only proven scientific side-effect has been a minor increase in cloudiness, which has raised winter nighttime temperatures slightly and reduced somewhat summer daytime temperatures, neither of which is known to be life-threatening.

From the campaign to rid phosphates from detergents in the '70s to the current focus on reformulated gasoline, we have an unfortunate tendency in this nation to rush ahead with political solutions to perceived problems before science can catch up. While this suits environmentalists' needs to demonstrate success to their contributors, it imposes huge nationwide costs on consumers.

Global warming is no longer the hot-button issue it once was. The scientific community isn't on board. This makes it increasingly difficult to sustain the apocalyptic claims and lurid imagery of doom needed for an effective fund raiser. Judging from mail I receive, environmentalists have moved on to other emotional venues such as preventing oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which, as far as I can determine, has never been proposed by anyone, so should be an easy win.

The global-warming issue will atrophy on its own. In the interim, however, we can expect those whose livelihoods depend on its perpetuation to hang on to the bitter end. Let's hope that neither the United States nor the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change react foolishly with costly and onerous ``remedies'' such as a carbon tax.

The unnamed writer of the April 9 article proposes three less obvious solutions: ``less luxury for the rich, more recycling, [and] more public transportation.'' How a more Spartan lifestyle, reduced solid waste or increased bus ridership - however laudable they might be perceived - are linked to a reduced potential for global warming is undisclosed.

David L. Foster, of Salem, is director of coal marketing at Norfolk Southern.