Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: SATURDAY, July 15, 1995 TAG: 9507170069
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-10 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MICHAEL E. RUANE KNIGHT-RIDDER/TRIBUNE
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium
Between the poles of doing absolutely nothing and conducting a complete U.N. withdrawal from the afflicted country, frantic officials around the world are considering a confusing lineup of responses.
None is good. Many are colored by national interest or local politics and are more or less viable, depending on the point of view.
As President Clinton and senior members of his administration consult with the French, British, Dutch and United Nations officials about how to deal with the chaos in Bosnia, here are some of the policy possibilities and their implications for the United States.
Complete withdrawal. The fall of Srebrenica to the Serbian rebels brought the possibility of a total pullout of the U.N. peacekeepers much closer because it demonstrated the U.N.'s inability to maintain its promised protections for Muslims and other non-Serb minorities.
Experts believe a decision on withdrawal must be made within the next few weeks if the departure is to be completed before the Balkan winter.
The United States has pledged to provide up to 25,000 troops to help in the rescue operation, which would be conducted by as many as 60,000 NATO troops. But the United Nations must request NATO's help first. The Clinton administration, fearing a bloody Balkan quagmire and a savage post-withdrawal civil war, views this as a worst-case scenario.
Individual withdrawal. France, which has the largest number of troops in Bosnia, has said it may pull its soldiers out. Such a withdrawal by one of the major contributors to the U.N. protection force could be disastrous. It could start a stampede and spell the end of the U.N. mission there.
But the French made a similar threat last fall. It's not clear how serious they are this time.
Retaking Srebrenica. Immediately after the town's fall the French called for it to be retaken. The French offered their own troops but asked for allied help. France has about 4,000 peacekeepers in Bosnia and is contributing 4,000 more to a European Reaction Force being assembled there.
Clinton on Thursday seemed to favor the U.N.'s retaking the town. But the British balked. And Friday the French changed their minds, calling instead for an increased allied military effort to improve the defense of other safe havens.
Defending all the remaining safe havens. Five are left - Sarajevo, Tuzla, Zepa, Gorazde and Bihac. Zepa, 10 miles south of Srebrenica, underwent Serbian attack again Friday and is protected by only 79 Ukrainian peacekeepers. The Serbs have reportedly demanded its surrender. Gorazde, about 20 miles south of Zepa, is isolated and defended by a 284-person British battalion and about 80 Ukrainians.
Defending some of the safe havens. This would concede the fall or abandonment of Zepa and Gorazde, and would expose tens of thousands of refugees to the rigors of relocation and Serbian depredations.
Rescuing trapped peacekeepers. The U.N. said Friday that the 400-person Dutch contingent that had protected Srebrenica was having trouble ``redeploying'' from the area. And 55 Dutch troops still were being detained as hostages, said spokesman Ahmad Fawzi in New York.
by CNB