Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, July 27, 1995 TAG: 9507270065
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-14 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: Associated Press
DATELINE: ZAGREB, CROATIA LENGTH: Medium
Croatia has repeatedly warned it will not allow the fall of Bihac, a U.N. ``safe area'' on its border that is the only obstacle to unifying rebel Serb holdings in both states. And it appears to be ready to go to war to ensure that it doesn't.
The Croats see the Serb capture of two U.N. ``safe areas'' in eastern Bosnia as writing on the wall for Bihac and for Croatia.
``It reminds us of ancient Greek dramas, where the chorus is saying ahead of time what will happen,'' said Ivan Simonovic, a deputy foreign minister.
As he spoke last week, rebel Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia launched an offensive that so far has gained them 32 square miles in Bihac enclave, some 40 miles south of here, and sent thousands of civilians fleeing.
``It is clear the international community failed in the case of Srebrenica. It would be a disastrous tragedy for the people of Bihac and Croatia's strategic interests should the same thing happen to Bihac,'' Ivo Sanader, another deputy foreign minister, told Croatian television Monday.
``Croatia reserves the right to choose the right moment and place for its intervention ... and it will be done in agreement with our allies,'' he said, noting U.S. Ambassador Peter Galbraith attended weekend talks where Croatian and Bosnian leaders pledged joint efforts to save Bihac.
The enclave, home to more than 200,000 people, is key for all sides in the Balkan conflict.
Serbs could increase their power in the region by joining Serb-held territory in two states if they controlled Bihac.
Croatia is intent on blocking that threat. The cover of protecting Bihac also gives Croatia pretext to join with its ethnic Croat allies in Bosnia and move within artillery range of the Croatian Serbs' stronghold, Knin.
The Muslim-led Bosnian government must hold Bihac to keep its claim to speak for all Muslims in Bosnia. Renegade Muslim leader Fikret Abdic, who enjoys rebel Serb military support, controls the enclave's northern edge.
Croatia has been spoiling for a fight ever since May, when it recaptured U.N.-protected, Serb-held territory southeast of Zagreb.
U.N. peacekeepers deployed in four sectors of Croatia after a six-month Serb-Croat war in 1991 left about a third of the country in rebel hands and an estimated 10,000 people dead.
Zagreb has made clear it no longer trusts the United Nations to reintegrate those Serb-held areas into Croatia proper. The threat to Bihac gives the Croats a pretext for attack to do the job themselves.
Its targets are expected to be the northern sector, on which Bihac borders, and the southern sector, the rebel Serb heartland. Both areas contain key supply routes and energy reserves. It already holds the western sector.
All signs point to the Croatian military wanting a fight, sooner rather than later, for all-out control of the northern and southern sectors
Western sources say Croatian President Franjo Tudjman appears foolishly confident that Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic will keep the Yugoslav army out of a renewed war in Croatia.
``By that thread hangs a regional war or not,'' one source said.
by CNB