Roanoke Times
                 Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: FRIDAY, August 11, 1995                   TAG: 9508110028
SECTION: EDITORIAL                    PAGE: A-10   EDITION: METRO 
SOURCE: 
DATELINE:                                 LENGTH: Medium

CROATS CAN'T DO OUR WORK FOR US

To be sure, the Serbs have been taught a lesson. The Croats gave them a taste of their own ethnic-cleansing medicine, routing Serbs from the Krajina region of Croatia. The West also has been treated to a lesson: a demonstration that the Serbs aren't invincible after all - that Serb aggression can be challenged, if the will to do so exists.

Still, it would be a mistake to infer that a military solution in the Balkans is now available. With a silent nod from the Clinton administration, Croats roared to an easy victory only because Serbia (with the old Yugoslavia army at its disposal) abandoned the Krajina Serbs. Flush with triumph, if the Croats advance too far, or massacre Krajina Serb civilians, Serbia might be forced to intervene. And Serbia would certainly come to Bosnian Serbs' defense if their defeat seemed imminent. The risk of a wider war remains considerable.

In humanitarian terms, too, celebration of the Croats' victory should be muted. The Krajina Serb civilians, now refugees, have lived in that region for 300 years. They've been ethnically cleansed from their homes, much as Muslims have been in Bosnia. The Croats, who engaged in terrible atrocities during World War II, have acknowledged violations of human rights and Geneva Conventions in their recent offensive. Meanwhile, the flood of refugees fleeing Krajina could still become a humanitarian disaster.

Diplomatically, the Croat victory would seem to bolster the West's bargaining leverage against Bosnian Serbs - but not necessarily. Nowhere, and certainly not in the Balkans, has settling scores proved a successful way to end killing and suffering.

Serbia, moreover, may have abandoned Krajina's Serbs because it hopes to strike a deal with the Croats, dividing the spoils of Bosnia between a Greater Serbia and a Greater Croatia. That would give Bosnian Serbs a freer hand to continue ethnic cleansing, would leave Muslims out in the cold, and could hurt chances of achieving a stable or internationally sanctioned political settlement.

The West, thus, still needs to do the two things it needed to do before the Croat offensive.

First, we need to achieve clear consensus about what we stand for. For all the talk about incomprehensible centuries-old Balkan conflicts and the bewildering to and fro of conquering armies and fleeing refugees, it is clear the West needs to draw a line and defend it, at the very least, around Sarajevo. Bosnia in general and Sarajevo in particular have historically exemplified the values of civilized pluralism threatened by the fascists and ethnic cleansers.

Second, we need to push a diplomatic settlement with more force. The United States should use its influence with Croats to get them to hold off on further fighting, and to protect human rights. The West needs to set new limits on the Serbs - responding forcefully, for example, if they shell Sarajevo or block humanitarian assistance. And the Muslims must be told that, notwithstanding the Croatian victory, they aren't going to get all their land back. The best way to get everyone to the bargaining table is to reduce the incentives to keep fighting.

The ideal of a multiethnic Yugoslavia is dead. But with a practical partition plan, at least the killing can stop.