Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, September 7, 1995 TAG: 9509070098
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-9 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: RAY L. GARLAND
DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
No modern chief executive has been quite so bold in asking voters to cast their ballots in legislative races based on their approval or disapproval of his policies. But this particular governor hadn't much choice. From the beginning of his term - indeed, of his political career -he has thrown down the gauntlet to the Democrats' historic majorities in the General Assembly.
Obviously, this strategy carries a high degree of risk. The failure of Republicans to win at least one chamber of the legislature will be seen by all and sundry as a personal rebuke to the governor. It will certainly embolden Democrats in obstructing whatever Allen wants to do in the remaining two years of his term.
In fact, the assembly's '96 session will be make or break for Allen's legislative agenda in any case. When lawmakers come back one year later, the air will be thick with the cries of candidates of both parties for the state's three top posts. The governor, of course, cannot succeed himself.
Voters would not be expected to show any deep interest in these events now, and most may never be more than mildly excited. While a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, with his huge staff and free postage, can have a personal relationship with a sizable number of constituents, and most people can name at least one of their senators, members of the state legislature must struggle to establish a bond.
That's especially true in those populous areas, like Northern Virginia, Tidewater and metropolitan Richmond, where many legislators must compete for what scant attention the press and public will spare them. And the issues decided in Richmond seldom have the sex appeal of those routinely occupying Congress, or even a city council.
The good side of that coin is voters aren't in the habit of seeing state government as an enemy. All the polls I've seen show them generally satisfied. This should offer incumbents a degree of protection in these bilious times. Of course, Allen hopes to change that view, at least so far as Democratic incumbents are concerned.
With Republicans almost certain to pick up the seat of retiring state Sen. Elliot Schewel, who represents Lynchburg, Bedford and Amherst, they must keep all 18 seats they now hold and defeat at least two Democratic incumbents. That would give them a majority of one in the 40-member Senate. But at least four Republican senators also face difficult races. The party must be prepared to see at least one of these go down, possibly two, which means it needs to win at least four seats now held by Democrats. Mindful of the math, the GOP is mounting a strong challenge to seven or eight incumbent Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Hunter Andrews of Hampton.
The situation in the 100-member House of Delegates is quite similar. In the existing House, there are 52 Democrats, 47 Republicans and a single independent, Del. Lacey Putney of Bedford, who is also its longest-serving member. If the new House is closely divided, Putney's role could be very interesting.
Only four House incumbents chose voluntary retirement. But they represent seats that should be safe for their respective parties. In fact, most seats created by the 1991 reapportionment can be seen as reasonably safe for one party or the other. Which leaves a fairly small number of "battleground" seats to decide control.
One of these is held by House Majority Leader Richard Cranwell of Roanoke County. He is being challenged by Trixie Averill, a hard-right Republican who was in Allen's corner from the day Democrats in Richmond, led by Cranwell, redistricted him out of a congressional seat he had just won in a special election. It was also Cranwell who mobilized Democrats to stymie the governor's program at the '95 assembly.
Since coming to Richmond in 1972 determined to make his mark, Cranwell has seemed to have a lock on the district. But Allen carried it in the governor's race with 63 percent of the vote while Cranwell pulled out all the stops to hold off a poorly funded Republican challenger who had lived in the area less than a year. While his margin was more than merely comfortable, Cranwell took nothing for granted. He never does. On the surface, this will be a harder race, but he must still be favored.
Last December, after the stunning GOP congressional victory, I asked Cranwell how he felt about the next assembly races. "If we lose," he said, "it will mean there was never any way to win." That is, the political tide was flowing with the Republicans and it wouldn't make much difference what Democrats did.
Some will question, then, why Cranwell fought so hard to put Allen on the defensive. You often hear the public complain, "Why can't they just get together and agree on what's right?" That isn't the nature of politics and never will be, save in the face of a national emergency. For one thing, there are legitimate points of contention between the parties, representing real divisions in the electorate. There's seldom any political profit in saying "me too!" when your opponent comes up with something.
Letting Allen have his way might have taken the sting out of the governor's rhetoric and robbed him of a main talking point. But voters could also be saying, "If Republicans have all the good ideas and represent the wave of the future, why not elect a good Republican to represent us in Richmond?" We will know Nov. 7 whether Allen or Cranwell blundered. But at least they defined a choice. And one of them will have some sort of mandate when it's over.
Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times columnist.
by CNB