Roanoke Times Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc. DATE: SUNDAY, October 1, 1995 TAG: 9510020131 SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A1 EDITION: METRO SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER DATELINE: LENGTH: Long
If Virginia voters next month elect their first Republican-controlled General Assembly in more than a century, they'll do more than switch the legislature's partisan balance and give Gov. George Allen the majorities he says he needs to enact his conservative agenda.
They also will give the legislature's leadership a distinctly suburban accent, a development that could have ramifications on a host of nonpartisan issues, most notably on road-funding and school-funding formulas.
In particular, they'll dramatically tip the General Assembly's regional balance of power in Northern Virginia's favor, installing an unprecedented number of committee chairmen from the Washington suburbs.
For the first time, Northern Virginians would head the budget-writing panels in both houses of the legislature. Vince Callahan of McLean is in line to chair House Appropriations; Harry Parrish of Manassas appears likely to head House Finance; John Chichester of Fredericksburg, whose district includes populous Stafford County on the southern edge of the Washington suburbs, would take over Senate Finance.
Northern Virginians also are in line to head the education committees in both houses - James Dillard of Fairfax in the House, Jane Woods of Fairfax in the Senate. Northern Virginians also could lead the transportation panels in both houses - Robert Harris of Fairfax in the House, Robert Calhoun of Alexandria in the Senate.
This regional power shift likely would set up budgetary winners that aren't on the ballot this fall. Leading the list: George Mason University, sometimes a funding ally of Virginia Tech when it comes to increasing state appropriations for higher education, sometimes a rival when it comes to dividing up those allocations.
"Some of the Republicans from Northern Virginia are very outspoken about the pork they're going to put in the budget," Virginia Commonwealth University political analyst Bob Holsworth says. "Vince Callahan has said so. You can be assured George Mason will get a lot more money."
Democrats from Western Virginia warn that that's one reason voters should not only re-elect them, but also keep their party in power. They contend they're best positioned, by dint of seniority and key committee assignments that come with being the majority party, to look out for the region's interests. Del. Clifton "Chip" Woodrum, D-Roanoke, points to a long list of Roanoke Valley projects that have won state funding - thanks, he says, to "the leverage we have by being the majority." These projects include Hotel Roanoke, Center in the Square and Virginia's Explore Park.
And then there are more obscure matters in which seniority in the majority party matters, such as funding for the Roanoke County Police Department. Under the state's funding formula, Roanoke County should have lost about $500,000 a year in state money when it started up a county police department five years ago. But Del. Richard Cranwell, D-Roanoke County, used his position as chairman of the House Finance Committee to make sure the funding stayed intact.
In theory, Republicans could do the same thing once they're in control, except that no GOP legislator from Western Virginia is in line for such a prominent position on the money committees in either chamber.
If Republicans take over the General Assembly for the first time this century, and the legislature's leadership is dominated by Northern Virginia, "that means this part of the state will not see the light of day," Cranwell warns. "They'll change the education formula to take money away; they'll change the highway formula to take money away. They'll suck money out of Southwest Virginia like George Allen wanted to suck water out of Lake Gaston."
Republicans from Western Virginia counter that Democrats are making too much out of the potential regional shifts. Take Chichester, for instance, says state Sen. Malfourd "Bo" Trumbo, R-Fincastle.
"His wife is from Covington. He visits this area often. And next in seniority [on Senate Finance] would be William Wampler" of Bristol. Plus, Wampler also is in line to chair Senate Commerce and Labor, a panel important to economic development interests. "Southwest Virginia wouldn't come out too poorly," Trumbo contends.
If anything, Trumbo says, the region might gain influence - it's just that the region's legislative clout in a GOP-led legislature wouldn't be concentrated in the Roanoke Valley, the way it is now with Cranwell. "You can't deny Cranwell has been able to use the majority leader's position to do certain things," Trumbo says. "But you have to look at the total picture. If you assume Vance Wilkins [of Amherst County] is going to be the speaker of the House, then the western part of the state may have more power than it does now."
Nevertheless, the prospect of so many Northern Virginians in charge of budget matters raises the question of whether Allen could make his budget cuts stick even in a Republican-controlled legislature. Many GOP legislators from Northern Virginia have been vocal about their region's financial needs. They also tend to be distinctly more moderate than their more conservative Republican colleagues from downstate. Many have embraced a call, led by Northern Virginia developer John "Til" Hazel, to increase substantially higher-education funding - a platform that runs directly counter to much of Allen's agenda.
With that in mind, Trumbo hints that a GOP legislature wouldn't reflexively back Allen's budget-cutting: "We as Republicans have to remember we're the legislature, and there is a system of checks and balances and we have to run checks on other branches of government."
|n n| While voters sort out the competing messages offered by the two parties this fall, legislators, lobbyists and other state capitol-watchers are scrambling to figure out another campaign that's being waged behind the scenes - who would be up and who would be down in a Republican-led General Assembly.
It's difficult to overstate just how historic a transition this would be: For more than a century, Democrats have had a hammerlock on the General Assembly. For most of that time, there weren't enough Republicans in Richmond to make much noise, much less a difference. Now, with redistricting shifting more seats to Republican-leaning suburbs, and steady GOP election gains over the past few years, the Republicans stand within reach of winning control.
A gain of just three seats in the House and another three in the Senate, would make Virginia the first state in the South to elect a Republican state legislature.
Who would be the leaders in a GOP General Assembly? Mostly, legislators with much less experience than their Democratic counterparts. The Republican gains have come so fast that the bulk of a GOP majority in both houses would be legislators elected in the 1990s - meaning either a significant loss of institutional memory, or a significant infusion of new blood, depending on one's point of view.
Two measures of how profound the generational turnover might be are close to home:
Del. Tommy Baker, R-Pulaski County, who has served only three terms, would be in line to chair a major committee - House Courts of Justice, which handles legal issues. Democrats, by contrast, often have had to wait more than a decade before getting a chance to head such an important panel.
Trumbo is wrapping up just his first term in the Senate, but, depending on how other chairmanships shake out, he could be in line to head the Senate Rules Committee.
There are, to be sure, a handful of Republicans whose legislative service stretches back more than two decades - Callahan first was elected in 1966; Andy Guest of Front Royal first went to Richmond in 1971.
But many of those senior Republican legislators are less vocal, and less partisan, than the conservative newcomers. One of the most interesting things to keep an eye on will be to see what kind of generational battles might erupt within an enlarged Republican caucus.
"Some of the older members have had to play a role, to do a 'Kabuki dance' with the Democrats" to get their bills passed, says Del. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, who is finishing up his first term.
"There's some concern that having done that for 10, 12, 20 years, some of the older members might still feel they have to play that game even though the numbers have changed."
That's why there's talk among the more numerous younger Republicans of abandoning the seniority system when it comes to picking committee chairmen. Even if the GOP, as expected, sticks with seniority, some legislators pegged to emerge as party leaders - with or without the benefit of chairmanships - are relative newcomers whose names are little known even to many political insiders.
Here's a rundown of how things might shake out, and what that might mean:
\ SENATE
The dominant figure in the Senate today is Hunter Andrews of Hampton, partly because he holds two jobs - chairman of Senate Finance and majority leader.
Republicans seem inclined to split those jobs in two in a bid to disperse power. "The Democrats rely on Hunter too much," Trumbo says. "If Hunter doesn't lead the show, they don't know where to fly. I don't like the accumulation of power in anyone's hands."
Joseph Benedetti of Richmond is the Republican leader in the Senate, although many younger members think he's too amiable for such a partisan post, and there's a lively intra-party contest for the job already under way. The most active contender appears to be Thomas Norment, a freshman from Williamsburg and a prime example of how seniority doesn't count for much on the Republican side of the aisle.
Unopposed for re-election, Norment has raised more than $150,000 anyway and is lavishing it on fellow Republican candidates for the Senate - the kind of generosity that often pays dividends when it comes to intra-party contests.
Another first-term Senate Republican who'll be a power is Kenneth Stolle of Virginia Beach. He was a key author of the GOP's campaign "pledge" - its Virginia version of the "Contract With America" - and is said to be eyeing the Senate's No.2 post, president pro tem.
Two GOP senators from Western Virginia also would be ascendant: William Wampler Jr. of Bristol is an Allen ally and would head a committee important to business interests.
Trumbo is not as close to the governor, but the Fincastle legislator emerged as his party's parliamentary leader in the past session. Even if he doesn't win the Rules Committee chairmanship, he'd still be in line to win a coveted seat on Senate Finance. In a GOP legislature, that alone could make Trumbo the most important legislator in the Roanoke and New River valleys. Says one lobbyist who spoke only if not identified: "Trumbo would be the man."
HOUSE OF DELEGATES
Vance Wilkins of Amherst County, now the House minority leader, most likely would be the new speaker of the House, replacing Democrat Thomas Moss of Norfolk. Some Republicans occasionally grumble that Wilkins is too country, too conservative or too closely aligned with Allen. John Watkins of Midlothian, one of the GOP's more moderate voices, already has said he'd challenge Wilkins for the speakership.
The Republican caucus, though, has a distinctly rightward cast, and many of the GOP candidates this year were personally recruited by Wilkins. If elected, they presumably will owe their loyalty to him.
Wilkins already is talking as if he's got the speakership in the bag, vowing to bring more order to the often-raucous House. "I'd like to see a little more decorum, and not be mooing and barking and carrying on, especially when school kids are there," he says.
Who the Republicans might pick as their majority leader is less clear - the name mentioned most often is that of Randy Forbes of Chesapeake.
Except for Wilkins and Baker, few Republican delegates would be in a position of obvious influence. "Western Virginia has mostly young delegates," Griffith explains. But he's hoping the November elections will, at least, pad their numbers.
Staff writers David M. Poole and Robert Little contributed to this report.
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by CNB