Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: THURSDAY, October 12, 1995 TAG: 9510120005
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-11 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DONALD NUECHTERLEIN
DATELINE: LENGTH: Medium
Many Canadians believe that even if Quebec's 5 million voters narrowly reject their government's call for full sovereignty, giving them independence from Canada, the issue will not go away.
Jacques Parizeau, leader of the Parti Quebecois and premier of Quebec province, says that even if the referendum fails this time, he will continue to bring it to the voters until he achieves Quebec's independence.
Fifteen years ago, Parizeau's predecessor, Rene Levesque, held a similar referendum and it lost by 60 to 40 percent. Most Canadians assumed the issue was dead.
During that campaign, Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau campaigned vigorously against the move. He promised Quebecers that if they voted no, he would give them a new constitution that recognized Quebec as a "distinct society."
Trudeau and his successor, Brian Mulroney, could not deliver on this promise, despite great efforts. As a result, Parizeau's party won the Quebec provincial election last year and vowed to bring a new referendum to the voters in 1995.
The outcome of the Oct. 30 balloting is uncertain for two reasons.
First, Quebecers are usually conservative in financial matters, and the 15-20 percent of swing voters could be swayed by fear of severe economic repercussions if Quebec proceeds to divorce without good economic ties with Canada.
A second uncertainty is the attitude of people in other parts of Canada, especially Ontario. In 1980, most English-speaking Canadians were prepared to make economic concessions to Quebec if it rejected sovereignty. That view and Trudeau's promise of a new deal convinced most Quebecers to vote no.
Today, much of Canada, including a large segment of Ontario's electorate, is fed up with economic and political concessions to Quebec. Their attitude is: "If they want to leave, let them go. But don't expect economic help from us."
Parizeau and his colleague, Lucien Bouchard, are betting that French-speaking Quebecers are tired of promises and will vote this time to break the ties with Canada.
Prime Minister Jean Chretien, a French-Canadian who rose to the top of Canada's government, thinks Quebecers will not choose independence if the economic costs seem too high.
My own view, based on 20 years of visiting and teaching in Canada, is that Quebec will eventually secede from Canada. Nationalism is a potent force in the world today, and it seems to be on the ascendancy in Quebec. It is sad to see, but Americans ought to be prepared for a new nation in North America.
Donald Nuechterlein, a political scientist who lives in Charlottesville, is the author of "America Recommitted."
by CNB