Roanoke Times
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: WEDNESDAY, November 1, 1995 TAG: 9511010074
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MIKE FEINSILBER ASSOCIATED PRESS
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Long
Powell's military record, philosophy and legendary caution, his reliance on powerful friends for his rise as a ``political general,'' his inexperience with the problems that confront a president every day, and now word that his wife has been treated for depression - all become grist the moment he runs.
Three-quarters of those who have pledged to back him will ``walk away'' if he declares, predicted Marilyn Quayle, wife of the former vice president. ``He is not used to taking criticisms,'' she added, ``and he is used to people doing what they are told.''
Powell says in his autobiography that he knows that if he jumps in, ``I would quickly alienate one interest group or another and burn off much popular support.''
So far, the attacks come from conservatives who don't want to hand the GOP to a moderate of the Nelson Rockefeller mold - one who supports gun control, legalized abortion and affirmative action and who opposes school prayer and aspects of the Republican welfare reform plan.
``Republicans rejected Rockefeller; why would they want a clone?'' asked Lyn Nofziger, a former adviser to Ronald Reagan who supports Bob Dole.
Political observers tick off these fault lines that opponents might exploit in a campaign:
Powell's military record. He is no Dwight Eisenhower, who forged history's greatest battlefield victory. In the Persian Gulf War, Powell was reluctant to get in - he favored an extended economic embargo - and he acquiesced in ending the war before Iraq's Saddam Hussein was neutralized and the Republican Guard destroyed.
And in following a political route to the top, boosted by heavyweight mentors such as Caspar Weinberger and Frank Carlucci, Powell left detractors in the ranks.
His military philosophy. ``The Powell Doctrine'' opposes the use of troops unless clear conditions are met: a precise objective, public support, a will to throw everything at the enemy, an exit plan, the likelihood of low casualties. Apply those rules rigidly, retired Lt. Gen. Bernard Trainor said last week, and ``you will never use military force for anything.''
Worse, Trainor said, Powell's concept turns 200 years of civilian control of the military on its head: ``The Powell Doctrine, rigidly applied as it has been, more or less tells the president when and when not to use military force. I would submit that that is not in the interest of the republic.''
Powell's business dealings. His silent-partner investment of $100,000 in a Buffalo, N.Y., television station, said to have brought a profit of $150,000 within 10 years, is already under scrutiny.
Family matters. A Powell spokeswoman confirmed that Powell's wife, Alma - who does not hide her opposition to his candidacy and fears for his life if he runs - has suffered from depression and takes medication to control a chemical imbalance. The Powells might not relish seeing that hashed out in a campaign.
Racial politics. They cut both ways. If he became the first black to run as a major party's nominee, Powell could get 30 to 50 percent of the black vote in November, eroding President Clinton's baseline support, Nofziger estimated.
On the other hand, ``there will be people who will not vote for Colin Powell because he's black and who will lie to pollsters about it,'' said Alan Hertzke, a University of Oklahoma political scientist. Powell offers ``racial absolution to white America'' and would attract votes from whites, he said. On balance, political observers say, race could be a plus, especially in states where Democrats and independents can vote in a Republican primary.
Powell's political innocence. He hasn't been subject to the rough and tumble and doesn't have a canned answer to questions that demand detailed knowledge. ``Wait until he comes out and he's surrounded [by reporters] asking about ethanol and target prices and corn yields and that sort of thing,'' said GOP front-runner Bob Dole.
And Powell could turn out to be thin-skinned. His adulatory march through the bookstores of America was hardly the best of preparation.
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING ABOUT POWELL
Where Colin Powell could be vulnerable to attack if he becomes a presidential candidate:
``I would begin to needle the hell out of him and see how thin his skin is.''
GOP consultant Lyn Nofziger's advice for Powell rivals
``He'll discover, I think, you're most popular in politics the day you get in and the day you get out.''
Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, already a candidate
``What they are going to do is build him up to a level that no human being could possibly meet. Then the minute he makes the decision to run, the game is going to become who can be the first to bring him down.''
Former Texas Gov. Ann Richards, a Democrat
``My advice is to test the waters very carefully. Be sure you are prepared to make the sacrifices that modern American politics require - the insults, the lies, the personal degradation.''
Former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig
``If he were to run against the [Republican] revolution, if he were to try to do to this Congress what Tom Dewey did in 1948, I think frankly he wouldn't have a chance of getting the nomination, and I think we'd all be likely to oppose him.''
House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Keywords:
POLITICS
by CNB