ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1995, Roanoke Times
DATE: Friday, December 8, 1995 TAG: 9512080080
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B-5 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: RICHMOND
SOURCE: FROM STAFF AND WIRE REPORTS
THE REASONS WHY AREN'T CLEAR, but Aid to Families with Dependent Children cases are off 5,500 in Virginia and 1,000 in Roanoke.
After 18 months on welfare, Patricia White chose to go off the dole this summer and start her own licensed day-care business.
It's been tough going for the 32-year-old single mother from Culpeper. These days, she's only earning about $200 a month - about the same amount she received in Aid to Families with Dependent Children.
But White is optimistic business will pick up early next year. She says she won't go back on public assistance.
``I like the freedom of not being on it,'' she said.
While many lawmakers moan that the nation's welfare system is spiraling out of control, White is part of a state and national trend: People are steadily dropping off the welfare rolls.
State and national officials have no conclusive evidence why the drop-off has occurred.
Gov. George Allen says the state's new welfare overhaul statute that went into effect July 1 is helping discourage people from seeking welfare benefits.
Others, however, attribute the drop-off primarily to a healthy economy that has created new job opportunities.
``If they're able-bodied, a lot of people said the heck with it. ... It's heartwarming,'' said Allen, a Republican who has made welfare overhaul a centerpiece of his administration.
That interpretation is too simplistic, said state Sen. Joseph Gartlan Jr., D-Fairfax County.
``There's absolutely no way for [the Allen administration] to demonstrate that the decline is due to welfare reform six months ago,'' said Gartlan, one of a handful of legislators who voted against the welfare plan. ``Fluctuation of welfare caseloads usually trail economic trends.''
In November 1994, 13.9 million adults and children received AFDC benefits nationwide, compared with 13.2 million in August 1995, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Every state except six - Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho, Connecticut, New Mexico and California - has seen a decline, the department said. The numbers for the most part have been falling since March 1994, when a record 14.4 million people were on AFDC.
In Virginia, the number of welfare cases dropped from 70,540 in April to 65,040 at the end of October. Virginians received $18.5 million in AFDC payments in April, compared with $17.9 million in October, according to the state Department of Social Services. Department officials said the welfare caseload has been steadily decreasing for about a year.
The Allen administration acknowledges that more factors are at work in the decline than welfare reform, but says the new law has discouraged some people from going on public aid.
``I think that it's obvious that people realize that if they're going to work, it would be better to get their own job,'' said Martin Brown, spokesman for the state Department of Social Services.
The economy certainly plays a role in the drop-off, Brown said. But other factors include people who give up their children to another parent or a grandparent and lose their benefits, or people who move out of state, Brown said.
Virginia's welfare overhaul requires able-bodied recipients to get a private-sector or community-service job within 90 days of receiving their first AFDC check. Cash payments are cut off after two years. The law also forces unwed teen-age mothers to live with their parents and stay in school if they want to keep their benefits.
The work component is being phased in over four years. It began in a five-county region in the Culpeper area July 1.
Other states have enacted or are considering implementing similar laws. At the federal level, the Republican-led Congress is crafting a welfare overhaul bill.
About 70 percent of new welfare recipients go off the rolls within two years, but about 50 percent of those return, said Michael Kharfen, a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services spokesman.
But Kharfen said the downward trend may be more likely to continue this time because of the economy and ``the whole change of environment around welfare.''
Some say the decline doesn't show the whole picture.
In Roanoke, the AFDC caseload dropped from 20,077 in July 1994 to 19,031 in July of this year, the month that the state's new welfare policies became law.
"That's a sizable drop for one locality, and we hadn't even touched welfare reform," said Corinne Gott, superintendent of the Roanoke Department of Social Services. "We have people leave the rolls and find success. It happens every month. It has nothing to do with welfare reform policies. Not here it didn't."
Roanoke's AFDC caseload has remained steady since July. In August, 19,044 were on the rolls; September, 19,067; and October, 19,054.
Gott said the statewide drop in AFDC cases must be fully analyzed before it can be celebrated. Yes, the state's new welfare policy could be responsible for the decline, she said, but so could the fact that some recipients have moved into bordering states.
``The fact that the caseload is going down doesn't tell us anything about whether child poverty is going up or down,'' said Mark Greenberg, senior staff attorney at the nonprofit Center for Law and Social Policy in Washington, D.C.
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