ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, January 7, 1996 TAG: 9601110143
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: D6 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JEFF STURGEON STAFF WRITER
The outlook for the textile and apparel businesses is about as mixed as the colors of a plaid sport coat.
Jay Meltzer, director of the Johnson Redbook Service, an independent research firm in New York, has predicted domestic textile industries will post only slight gains in 1996.
Analysts who have noted retailers' disappointment with apparel sales this past Christmas season have lowered expectations for the textile industry's performance this year, said Helmut Hergeth, an assistant professor of textile and apparel management at North Carolina State University at Raleigh.
"I don't think we are going to see the kind of growth people were hoping for half a year ago. Half a year ago, people were much more enthusiastic," he said.
During the first nine months of last year, exports of all textiles were increasing at a faster rate than imports, a positive sign, according to the American Textile Manufacturers Institute in Washington. Exports grew at 16.4 percent to $10.2 billion, while imports grew 11.1 percent to $38 billion.
But the trade deficit - the difference between imports and exports - stood at $27.8 billion, up 9.3 percent. Imports of apparel account for the largest part of the deficit, which is a point of growing concern as it has risen 52 percent in the past 10 years.
In addition, U.S. textile employment declined by 30,000 jobs to 644,000 during the 10 months ending Oct. 31. Apparel employment dropped by 85,000 jobs to 885,000 during the same period.
More current information is unavailable, because the government shutdown has furloughed government-paid industry analysts.
Analysts also are uncertain about their outlook because while one segment of the industry can struggle another can thrive. Textiles and apparel is "not an industry, it's a collection of hundreds of businesses that just happen to use fiber as the basic raw material," said textile instructor Gordon Berkstresser at North Carolina State.
"You don't have a steady line of growth. You get jerks up and down, depending on how the technological changes happen, how they come in and how they are accepted," Berkstresser said. "Some segments of the business are quite healthy and some aren't."
DuPont's nylon plant in Martinsville, which supplies the raw material for automotive seat belts, lingerie and women's hosiery, can see a possible downturn in about a year.
After posting record nylon sales in 1994 and 1995, the company expects new pressure from its overseas competitors in 1997. This year, said DuPont spokesman Mike Wall, preparations for that possibility could determine the fate of the Martinsville plant, one of the area's largest textile factories with more than 600 employees.
"It's destiny is in its own hands," Wall said. "It's going to have to continue to deliver those high quality products to our customers and find ways to do it more efficiently."
The outlook is much brighter at a Vinton plant belonging to industrial textiles maker Precision Fabrics Group of Greensboro, N.C. The company sees a big new market in weaving a material for automotive air bags. The new fabric reduces the size and weight of air bags.
LENGTH: Medium: 62 linesby CNB