ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, February 18, 1996 TAG: 9602160082
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: G-3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MARK J. ROZELL and CLYDE WILCOX
THREE-TERM Sen. John Warner faces his most serious campaign challenge since taking office - from fellow Republican Jim Miller, former director of the Office of Management and Budget. On the surface, it may seem odd that the only Republican in Virginia history to be elected three times to statewide office appears electorally vulnerable. But "movement" conservative anger at Warner runs deep.
The most recent polling data show that among Republican-identifying voters, the challenger is running about even with the incumbent. That is a good sign for Miller, but it does not tell all.
The conventional wisdom suggests that Miller may be able to best Warner among Republican partisans, but that Virginia's open primary allows independents and Democrats to turn out for their favored candidate - presumably Warner. Our analysis of Republican activists in Virginia suggests that the conventional wisdom may be somewhat misleading.
Miller barely lost a GOP convention nomination battle in 1994 against Oliver North. At almost every turn, Miller staked out the most conservative position, placing him even to the right of North on such hot issues as abortion. Our survey of 1994 convention delegates reveals that Miller had little success at breaking into North's base among the most conservative delegates, especially the Christian social conservatives. The typical Miller delegate was pro-business but socially moderate.
The survey revealed that Miller did not inspire intense support even among his own delegates, many of whom said their leading motivation was opposition to North. Yet there was some very good news for Miller too: Delegates saw Miller, like Gov. George Allen and state Attorney General Jim Gilmore as a party unifier. All factions liked Miller, including most North backers, even though none was intensely enthusiastic about him.
It is therefore not certain that Miller will inspire a massive outpouring of movement conservative support; he was unable to do so in an earlier contest. And it may seem ironic that the man who ended up the candidate of party centrists in 1994 convention is asking movement conservatives to turn to him in a 1996 primary.
Of course, Miller has the advantage of challenging an incumbent who has angered the conservative movement, and may again motivate supporters on the basis of opposition to the alternative. But he will have to mobilize the faction that wouldn't back him in 1994.
The Warner scenario is also somewhat complicated. Our survey revealed that Warner, unlike Miller, is a divisive party figure: The mere mention of him elicited some incredible survey responses, including one that likened him to a warm bucket of noxious whale emissions. Many other responses were equally harsh, though less creative.
If the survey responses are still indicative of conservative opinion toward Warner, the conventional wisdom regarding his inability to reach out to the right is accurate. But even among party centrists and pro-business Republicans, there were pockets of disgruntlement with Warner. Support for Warner among party centrists was actually no stronger than was registered for Miller. These results call into question the widely held view that Warner can prevail merely by mobilizing party moderates and enough independents and Democrats who want to express gratitude for his earlier opposition to North.
In fact, Warner's position is even more complicated: Despite his reputation as a party moderate, Warner's voting record in Congress is quite conservative. Yet he needs to mobilize GOP moderates (the hardest Republicans to mobilize), as well as independents and Democrats who may not like all his votes and issue stands.
Whatever the outcome, the internal GOP squabble this coming spring will hearten those Democrats who look forward to challenging a Republican-held Senate seat that just a few years ago appeared one of the safest in the country.
Mark J. Rozell is research associate professor at the White Burkett Miller Center at the University of Virginia. Clyde Wilcox is associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.
LENGTH: Medium: 78 lines KEYWORDS: POLITICSby CNB