ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Thursday, February 29, 1996 TAG: 9603010001
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-9 EDITION: METRO
COLUMN: Ray L. Garland
SOURCE: RAY L. GARLAND
AMERICANS seem at once the most trusting and the least trusting of people. There is seldom a fad, scare or nostrum into which a sizable number will not buy - all the while proclaiming distrust of the very media that bring them news of it. When sick, in trouble with the law or needing a decent roof over their heads, they sensibly seek experience and reputation, but profess to scorn those same qualities when choosing a president.
There are only two brands of politics that have ever had much sales appeal: the politics of hope and the politics of fear - mainly the latter. Right now, the happy warrior of fearmongering is fellow-pundit Patrick Buchanan. His message is simple: The American elite has sold out the little people, who must now work harder for less.
At this early stage in the Republican nominating process, the media may be exaggerating the appeal of Buchananism. In five primaries held thus far, it has yet to rise above a third of the vote. That said, Buchanan obviously has enough wind in his sails to take this fight all the way to the GOP national convention. But his third-place showing in Arizona - a state that seemed made for him - seems to say he can't prevail.
Virginians wanting to participate for or against Buchanan must immediately get word to the GOP chair in their county or city that they want to be delegates to the congressional district and state conventions that will elect delegates to the national powwow. Such requests will normally be honored, but there will be fees. Without a quick outpouring of Republican regulars convinced that Buchanan will lead their party to a historic rout, it's likely his allies will capture for him a majority of the Virginia delegation.
The news media may also be exaggerating the appeal of Buchanan's "America First" message. He is also making the strongest appeal to unyielding opponents of abortion and gun control. Since these two groups might be expected to cast close to a quarter of the vote in a GOP primary, the economic nationalism upon which the press has rightly focused may only be frosting on his cake.
But we have the first serious presidential contender since the 1920s to come out in the open for higher tariffs, lower immigration and turning our backs on troubles abroad that don't threaten American vital interests. In fairness, this reflects more of the history of the Republican Party than the internationalism of Bob Dole and the others, which dates only from 1945. But until Buchanan came along, it was rather dead history.
I've tried to understand that subject too long to believe we can ever see past, present or future except through a glass darkly. But American foreign and trade policy in the past 50 years does seem now handsomely vindicated. As the world's greatest market, and only military superpower, other nations must oblige us. It has cost blood and treasure - some of it foolishly spent - but it has probably saved far more blood and treasure.
"Fine," you say, "but how does that help the most recent 40,000 being laid off by AT&T?" Well, let's take AT&T. You can't have a company go from a virtual monopoly to wide-open competition in just a few years and expect it to maintain the status quo. And look at the other side. In real-dollar terms, long-distance rates are lower than ever, and will go lower.
Now, job growth certainly stalled in 1995 at just below 133 million, which may be helping to fuel Buchanan. But this economy created 16 million new jobs in the past 10 years, and a total of 46 million since 1970.
From 1970 to 1994, the U.S. population grew by about 30 percent. But the size of our total economy, in constant dollars, grew by more than 100 percent. No question, we slept on the vast lead we had coming out of World War II, and gave other nations a free ride in our domestic economy far too long. But that has changed.
The export of American goods and services has dramatically increased, and we are beginning to pull away from Japan. For the second year, the respected Swiss-based Institute for Management and Development ranked the U.S. economy as the world's most competitive. For the eight years prior to 1994, Japan was ranked first.
Certainly, many are suffering from the dog-eat-dog competition now driving our economy. But three things seem behind that. First, the utter ruthlessness of the American consumer in seeking the lowest possible price. Second, policies of government that favored the old at the expense of the young while expanding a welfare underclass. Third, the stubborn refusal of a large segment of our population to avail themselves of expensively provided opportunities for education and training. Why, right here in Virginia, taxpayers are now prepared to pay more than $100,000 to take a child through 13 years of public school and two years of community college.
The social side, which Buchanan is also addressing, is a mixed bag. We are living longer, healthier lives, completing more years of formal education and traveling more. But the potential for social disintegration may be seen in our birth statistics. From 1970 to 1993, births to unmarried women increased from 400,000 to 1.2 million.
And most dismaying of all, 68 percent of black births in 1992 were to unmarried women. Looking all this up in the most recent edition of the Statistical Abstract of the United States, I kept coming back to check this figure. But it wasn't wrong, at least not in the sense of being an error of fact.
As a nation, we may be materially rich and spiritually poor. But if you take realistic stock, only the preternaturally gloomy will despair.
So, why all the doomsaying? Well, there is a lot that has gone wrong, and habits of thought, once learned, are hard to unlearn. Nor should we overlook that nattering chorus of paid agents, hired by those seeking favors from government, to keep us in a constant state of alarm.
Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times columnist.
LENGTH: Long : 101 lines KEYWORDS: POLITICS PRESIDENTby CNB