ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Friday, March 1, 1996 TAG: 9603010063
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: COLUMBIA, S.C.
SOURCE: WARREN FISKE STAFF WRITER
note: above
BOB DOLE and Pat Buchanan are engaged in a debate over the economic future of the South - and the nation.
Every four years, South Carolina voters seem to wipe the blood off a staggering presidential front-runner, nourish him and send him sprinting toward the Republican nomination.
Just ask George Bush, who came into the state in 1988 and 1992 after weak showings in Iowa and New Hampshire and won decisive victories here against religious broadcaster Pat Robertson the first time and conservative commentator Pat Buchanan the next.
This year, Bob Dole has come in trailing. And after a considerable first-aid effort by the state's Republican establishment, polls suggest he is well positioned to survive a strong challenge from Buchanan to claim a much-needed victory Saturday. in South Carolina's GOP primary.
More is at stake here than the state's 37 delegates. The four leading Republican candidates all hope to leave South Carolina with a surge of momentum for primaries and caucuses in 19 other states by March 12.
South Carolina is the first of seven Southern states to hold primaries in early March. The campaign here offers a benchmark of which candidates and issues can galvanize Dixie - a vital swing region in November's elections.
The campaign has been decidedly nasty, with negative advertising and verbal assaults from Dole, Buchanan, Lamar Alexander and Steve Forbes.
Beneath the din, however, Dole and Buchanan have debated the economic future of the South in a state where creating jobs, according to polls, is the No.1 issue on voters' minds.
Dole's lead seems a testament to his deep campaign organization and close ties to the state's Republican establishment. He has been strongly endorsed by three influential Republican leaders: former Gov. Carroll Campbell, Gov. David Beasley and Sen. Strom Thurmond. They have accompanied Dole much of the week.
Dole has waged an aggressive, often negative campaign against Alexander and Buchanan. His strategy has been to narrow the Republican race to a choice between him and Buchanan, whose agenda is often called extremist.
That means Dole must eliminate Alexander, who has been competing for much needed moderate votes. ``The sooner this gets down to a two-way race, they better off we are,'' said Warren Tompkins, a senior Dole strategist.
Dole has run blistering television ads all week claiming Alexander was soft on crime and raised taxes 58 times when he was governor of Tennessee in the 1980s. ``Isn't Lamar Alexander too liberal?'' the ad intones.
Alexander, who says the commercial is false, has responded with ads characterizing Dole as old and washed up. ``After 35 years in Washington, Bob Dole is out of fresh ideas,'' an announcer says. ``Isn't it time for new leadership? Isn't it time to move on?''
Dole has hardly uttered a word about Buchanan since being criticized by religious right leaders last month for calling his chief rival an ``extremist.'' But that message gets out through such surrogate speakers as Campbell.
``I think his rhetoric is so extreme that it incites people many of us don't want to associate with,'' Campbell said Sunday on a nationally broadcast talk show.
Campbell is widely believed to be on Dole's short list of vice presidential prospects. He is a staunch free-trader who lured more $7.4 billion in foreign investment to the state as governor from 1986 to 1994, creating 33,000 new jobs.
Campbell has crossed the state warning that Buchanan's protectionist trade policies could be dangerous. ``If he continues with his America first, nobody-else-to-trade-with policy, he'll bring us to a recession at the least and probably a depression, if he's elected,'' Campbell said.
Dole and Campbell have underscored the free-trade theme this week by holding a rally at the Port of Charleston, the site of South Carolina's burgeoning export business, and leading reporters on a tour of a BMW plant that employs 1,700 and announced plans this week to expand.
``We're for progress,'' Dole told plant workers. Buchanan, he claimed, ``is living in the past.''
Buchanan has spent much of his time in rural South Carolina holding rallies at abandoned textile plants. The mills have become a metaphor for Buchanan's protectionist policies. The state has lost 15,000 textile jobs this decade. Buchanan says the loss was largely to companies moving their plants into Mexico and Central America, where unskilled labor can be found for 75 cents an hour.
Buchanan argues that many of the laid-off textile workers have been cast aside and lack the skills to land jobs at new high-tech plants such as BMW.
``We're going to put a spotlight on those who have been left behind,'' he said Wednesday. ``We're going to put a spotlight on all the people who lose in these deals cut by `Beltway Bob' and the bellhop of the business round table.''
Buchanan also is courting Christian conservative voters, who political scientists say may be at least 40 percent of the state's electorate. Although all the Republican candidates say they are personally opposed to abortion, only Buchanan has pledged to try to outlaw it, even in cases of rape.
But many evangelicals are wondering whether Buchanan is electable. While they applaud his stand on social issues, some say they will back Dole because they believe he has the best chance of beating Bill Clinton.
Forbes, fresh from a breakthrough victory Tuesday in Arizona, appears to have little organization or support in South Carolina. Although he has peppered the airwaves with commercials touting his flat tax plan, Forbes waited until Thursday to make his first campaign appearance in South Carolina.
``Senator Dole has a formidable lead here,'' Forbes said. ``He should win easily.''
LENGTH: Long : 105 lines KEYWORDS: POLITICS PRESIDENTby CNB