ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Friday, March 1, 1996 TAG: 9603010066
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MIKE HUDSON STAFF WRITER
note: below
IT'S A MOCK CONVENTION, but the pressure on Washington and Lee students to make the right pick this weekend is very real.
The Mock Presidential Convention at Washington and Lee University is no crepe-paper and funny-hat lark.
Sure, there's plenty of hoopla and alcohol-drenched partying, just like the real thing. But the mock conventioneers are serious about trying to predict the presidential nominee of the party out of the White House.
W&L's mock convention has been on the money 10 of the past 11 times and the past five times in a row.
Now that enviable string may be in jeopardy. The free-for-all in the GOP's nomination battle has left the mock conventioneers scrambling to keep up with the fortunes of candidates whose standing seems to change from day to day. With Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes surging among disaffected Republicans and former front-runner Bob Dole fading, it's anybody's guess who will be the party's nominee.
But the W&L students like the challenge, and they're enjoying that the tumult has increased the media attention on the convention, which starts today and finishes Saturday.
``People are pretty excited about it,'' said Tim Jenkins, a junior who leads the mock convention's California delegation. ``It's a real prediction this year.''
The convention will make its roll call prediction on Saturday after a speech by U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Melissa Byrd, a senior from Roanoke who leads the Virginia delegation, has been calling political science professors, reporters and party leaders across the state. At this point, Byrd said, no one can say what will happen when the Virginia GOP selects its presidential delegates in late May and early June.
``If they had to say right now, they would have no idea, because it's so up in the air,'' said Byrd, a politics and journalism major. ``I sort of have to go by instinct and what I know about Virginia politics.''
She won't make her final prediction on Virginia until tonight. Wednesday, she said she expected Buchanan to do well in Virginia - in part because of the Republicans who have supported former lieutenant governor nominee Mike Farris and U.S. Senate nominee Oliver North in their unsuccessful bids for office.
But in the end, she said, Dole probably will come out on top, because he's seen as a safer - and more electable - GOP choice to run against President Clinton .``Virginia generally does not go with the more radical candidate,'' she said. ``Virginia doesn't jump into things real fast.''
Jenkins and Byrd are two of perhaps 200 students directly involved in researching and making the convention's forecast. They've been reading newspapers, scrutinizing public polls and searching for any scrap of inside dope they can find.
They've been working for nearly a year, with increasing intensity the past few weeks. This week, Byrd said, she's spent ``all day long, every day'' on the convention. ``My classes have sort of gone by the wayside. But our professors understand.'' She did take a bit of time Wednesday night to work on a paper about Rembrandt.
All four of her housemates are involved in the convention. ``It's like Mock Convention Central,'' she said. ``The phone never stops ringing.''
Since the the Mock Convention began in 1908, it has accurately predicted the nominee of the party out of power 15 out of 20 times. The last time it missed was in 1972, when it incorrectly chose Edward Kennedy over George McGovern.
Mock Convention organizers say their prediction has particular relevance because their convention is the first and only simulated delegate count before the real Republican convention in August.
The students' forecast will be difficult not just because of the uncertainty of the nomination fight. Convention organizers also dug themselves a hole by moving the Mock Convention up a week from when it has been traditionally held. The 1992 Mock Convention also was a week earlier than the tradition, but by that point, Clinton already was a clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination to challenge then-President Bush.
As a warm-up, this year's convention organizers have been predicting winners in early state primaries and caucuses. They were right in Louisiana, Iowa and the Dakotas, but - as were many other observers - they were wrong in New Hampshire, Delaware, Arizona and Alaska.
W&L'S MOCK CONVENTION
This weekend, Washington & Lee University holds its quadrenniel Mock Convention.
Since the tradition started in 1908, W&L students have correctly predicted the presidential nominee for the party out of power 15 out of 20 tries. Since 1948, the convention has been wrong only once. This year, with the Republican race scrambled, the pressure is on.
THE RECORD
1908. RIGHT with William Jennings Bryan.
1912. WRONG with Judson Harmon (Woodrow Wilson won the nomination).
1916. RIGHT with Charles Evans Hughes.
1920. No convention held.
1924. RIGHT with John Davis.
1928. RIGHT with Al Smith.
1932. RIGHT with Franklin Roosevelt.
1936. WRONG with Arthur Vandenburg (Alf Landon won the nomination).
1940. WRONG with Charles McRary (Wendell Wilkie won the nomination).
1944. No convention held.
1948. WRONG with Arthur Vandenburg (Thomas Dewey won the nomination).
1952. RIGHT with Dwight Eisenhower.
1956. RIGHT with Adlai Stevenson.
1960. RIGHT with John Kennedy.
1964. RIGHT with Barry Goldwater.
1968. RIGHT with Richard Nixon.
1972. WRONG with Edward Kennedy.
1976. RIGHT with Jimmy Carter.
1980. RIGHT with Ronald Reagan.
1984. RIGHT with Walter Mondale.
1988. RIGHT with Michael Dukakis.
1992. RIGHT with Bill Clinton.
1996. ????
For more information, check out the Mock Convention on the Internet at:
http://www.mockcon.wlu.edu/~mockcon/
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