ROANOKE TIMES Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times DATE: Sunday, March 3, 1996 TAG: 9603040089 SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: C1 EDITION: METRO COLUMN: Jack Bogaczyk SOURCE: JACK BOGACZYK
Some people have all the luck, like Terry Holland.
Virginia's athletic director is one of the nine men who will gather in a Kansas City, Mo., hotel conference room later this week and select and seed the NCAA Tournament field. They use 17 measures to pick the 34 at-large basketball teams for the field and seed the 64-team bracket.
Supposedly, coins and darts are not involved.
Next week at this time, Holland and his basketball buddies will know who was left on the bubble. Right now, it's crowded, with Alabama, Fresno State, New Orleans, Oklahoma, Clemson, California, South Carolina, Tulsa and Providence.
This year's selection process is more wide-open than the Republican presidential primaries. It could get worse, if a few good teams in lesser conferences - such as Wisconsin-Green Bay and Santa Clara - fall en route to automatic bids.
No matter who's in, someone left out will scream. Last year's surprise entrants were Minnesota - which didn't belong - and Manhattan, which won a first-round game but still was a stretch in some minds. With so much balance from what should be seeds 3 through 10 this year, there doesn't appear to be much room for Cinderella on this trip to the Big Dance.
Some years, the basketball committee's toughest decisions are what to order from room service. This year, they'll be debating whether the Southeastern Conference deserves five bids, or the ACC six. They'll be trying to fit College of Charleston (S.C.) - 24-3 but still ineligible for the Trans America's automatic berth - into a glass slipper, if possible.
The committee members get free lodging and meals for their opinions while selecting the field. For my opinions, I'll only get egg on my face. Still, armed with only the Ratings Percentage Index, conference standings and some guesswork, let's head down the Road to the final 64:
One bid: Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-Continent, Mid-Eastern, North Atlantic, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern and Trans America. Charleston has a pretty good record, but its schedule ranks in the bottom 40 among the nation's 305 Division I teams. That's 16 low seeds.
Maybe two: The Mid-American, Midwestern, Missouri Valley, Sun Belt and West Coast will double their pleasure only if Eastern Michigan, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Bradley, Arkansas-Little Rock and Santa Clara lose in league tournaments this week. Those five leagues will share six spots. Go with Santa Clara, Green Bay, Little Rock (playing the Sun Belt at home), Bradley and, from the MAC, EMU and Miami of Ohio.
Two bids: The Western Athletic gets a pair in Utah and New Mexico. Jerry Tarkanian, even with a new zip code at Fresno State, has the NCAA bursting his bubble again. The Southwest gets Texas Tech and Texas.
In the SEC, forget Arkansas. The Razorbacks lost their bid Thursday when they lost stars Sunday Adebayo and Jesse Pate to ineligibility. Kentucky, Georgia and Mississippi State are in the field. Either South Carolina or Alabama will be in the NIT, as will Vanderbilt. The SEC gets four.
The Pacific-10 has three locks in UCLA, Arizona and Stanford. California appears to be a stretch.
Conference USA has no automatic, but four sure things in Cincinnati, Memphis, Louisville and Marquette. Tulane appears to be in, but has played a woeful non-conference schedule. Still, give the Wave a berth.
Virginia Tech joins Massachusetts, Temple and George Washington in the field from the Atlantic 10, although the Colonials played an awful schedule, ranked No. 207 in the RPI. They did beat the other three A-10 entrants and are one of the nation's hottest teams.
The Big Ten gets six spots - Purdue, Penn State, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan and Illinois, although the Illini are fighting to reach .500 in the league.
That leaves 16 bids to be shared by the ACC, Big Eight and Big East. The ACC and Big East have five locks apiece - Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Duke and Clemson or Maryland from the ACC, and Connecticut, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse and Boston College from the Big East. Providence may need one more victory to go dancing.
Maryland has played the nation's fourth-best schedule, according to the RPI, but also needs more than 16 victories to get into the field. Clemson has 17 victories, but has played the ACC's worst schedule.
Take four Big Eight teams (Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State and Oklahoma). Two of three from among Providence, Maryland and Clemson make the Large Limbo. From here, it looks like the Friars and Terps. A good schedule means something.
And if Clemson, South Carolina and Charleston all are left out, the basketball committee probably should expect a call from Strom Thurmond.
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