ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Friday, March 8, 1996 TAG: 9603080060
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: B7 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: NEW YORK
SOURCE: ASSOCIATED PRESS
Mixed data Thursday did little to suggest that the economy is growing at anything better than a snail's pace, with a key index of future activity falling sharply.
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators dropped 0.5 percent in January to its lowest level in more than two years. Its decline was widely expected after a powerful blizzard that disrupted business. Analysts were hesitant to read much into the news.
``We're getting mixed signals,'' said Peter Jaquette, a senior economist at the Wefa Group, an economic consulting firm. ``That's very consistent with an economy that's growing quite slowly.''
The leading index, put out by the Conference Board, a private research group, is seen as an important indicator of the economy's direction. The January decline compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in December and a drop of 0.2 percent in November.
Its January reading of 100.2 was the lowest since it stood at 99.7 in November 1993. Wall Street had been looking for a 0.6 percent decline.
``A number like this taken at face value would mean the economy is dipping into recession in the next six months,'' said Kathleen Stephansen, a senior economist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp. ``You need to take it with a grain of salt because it's due to the weather.''
Of the index's 11 components, six made negative contributions to the overall figure. A decline in the average factory workweek hurt the most, which economists expected because of the blizzard that battered the East Coast and kept many workers at home.
In a separate report Thursday, the Federal Reserve said consumer borrowing increased by $10.3 billion in January, after gains of $9.8 billion in both November and December.
The January increase boosted the total amount of consumer installment credit to $1.035 trillion at the end of January, an increase of 13.2 percent from a year ago.
The January advance in debt caught analysts by surprise. Many had been forecasting a slowdown in credit growth for the month, reflecting the bad weather that kept consumers out of stores.
LENGTH: Short : 48 linesby CNB