ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, March 24, 1996 TAG: 9603220024
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: F-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: PETER S. CANELLOS THE BOSTON GLOBE
Bob Dole's recent victories in the Republican primaries, setting the stage for an election contest between a self-described ``mainstream conservative'' and President Clinton, leave a large opening for a third-party candidacy appealing to voters who believe their needs are ignored, political scientists say.
Such a candidacy, they maintain, could cast both Dole and Clinton as defenders of a stale Washington status quo in areas ranging from trade policy to term limits.
Earlier this month, political speculation increased about possible third-party challenges by both Republican Patrick J. Buchanan and independent Ross Perot, who stepped up his drive to place his Reform Party on the ballot in all 50 states.
Perot's party plans to choose a candidate for the fall election, hoping to challenge the established parties. The Texas billionaire has been coy about his own intentions. But lately, in the wake of Dole's GOP victory, he has sounded more willing than usual to join the race.
``Ross Perot could in fact be our nominee, but that is not set in stone,'' said Paul Truax, the Reform Party state chairman for Texas, who kicked off a petition drive in Dallas.
And Buchanan stepped up his attacks on the Republican establishment, which has rallied around Dole after Buchanan's win in the New Hampshire primary. ``They are the ones who are freezing us out of the Republican Party and the Republican convention,'' the commentator said, in a not-so-veiled reference to the possibility of taking his ``movement'' outside the GOP.
Exit polls in recent primaries show about half of the voters yearning for a fresh choice. Political specialists say the strongest outside challenger would be someone who could incorporate much of Perot's and Buchanan's messages, while exhibiting the presidential bearing of someone like retired Gen. Colin Powell.
``The alternatives Dole and Clinton stand for are the conventional Democratic and Republican alternatives that have failed to address the discontent and frustration of the electorate,'' said Michael J. Sandel, a Harvard professor and author of the new book ``Democracy's Discontent.''
``There is a void in our political discourse,'' Sandel added. ``It's a moral void that candidates like Buchanan have tried to fill. I think the people would respond to a strong moral message, not necessarily a conservative one, but one linked to an economic message.''
Sandel said a third party would have to offer voters a firmer sense of control over their lives - perhaps through a Buchanan-Perot message attacking corporate downsizing - along with a moral philosophy to strengthen civic values and institutions.
Ideally, specialists say, a third party could embrace voters as varied as supporters of Rev. Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition and the Buchanan campaign, both of which oppose the North American Free Trade Agreement and share a sense of alarm about the loss of blue-collar jobs.
The potential difficulties in tying together such constituencies are obvious, they say. On social issues, especially, Buchanan voters might be tempted to stick with the Republicans. Many Rainbow Coalition members would retain an allegiance to Democratic positions on civil rights and abortion rights.
But Sandel, for one, believes that voters are hungry for a new social message, one less severe than that of conservative Republicans but more unifying than the Democratic plea for tolerance of different lifestyles.
``The challenge to a progressive version of Buchanan would be to talk about downsizing, insecurity and the disempowerment that goes with it, as Buchanan did, but to link that to a moral message about families, neighborhoods, communities and culture,'' he said.
Political scientists differ on the extent of an opportunity for a third-party breakthrough. Some point to Perot's 19 percent showing in 1992, the best independent tally since former President Theodore Roosevelt's 27 percent in 1912, as indicating voter willingness to look beyond the Democrats and Republicans.
``Conditions for a third party have rarely been more favorable,'' said Cornell University historian Theodore Lowi in a recent article.
Others, including Boston University political science professor Michael Corgan, believe the two-party system is too firmly ingrained to allow a new movement to gain steam for long. ``Only when there's a major breakdown in the social contract is there a new party in this country,'' Corgan said. ``The last new party was the Republicans,'' forged during the crisis that led to the Civil War.
Corgan agreed that a Dole-Clinton face-off would leave many issues open to a third challenger, but a slate of issues does not make up a party, he said. ``They are all interesting ideas, and all command support, but they don't form a coherent body of thought,'' he said.
Still, talk of a third party has drawn interest beyond the usual think tanks and insurgent movements. A group of prominent former and current officeholders dubbed the ``Secret Seven'' began talks about forming a centrist alliance last year. Several members of the discussion group - among them former Connecticut Gov. Lowell Weicker, former Sen. Paul Tsongas and retiring New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley - are considered potential third-party candidates.
Some members of the group continue talking, sources say, but they haven't made any moves toward creating a third party. Tsongas and Bradley have disclaimed interest in running. And Weicker, who mused last year about a possible run, has made no effort to start a campaign.
``It was basically a message in search of a messenger, and no one in the group was willing to become a candidate,'' said Dennis Bailey, communications director for Maine Gov. Angus King, a political independent who was part of the discussion group but dropped out. ``It was to talk about issues and get the candidates to talk about issues, but it evolved into a third-party discussion. It never jelled.''
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