ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Wednesday, April 3, 1996 TAG: 9604030020
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: B6 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: NEW YORK
SOURCE: ASSOCIATED PRESS
THE SHARPEST GAIN IN 20 YEARS in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators was due mostly to the return of workers who'd been snowed in during January.
An economic index designed to predict the future registered its sharpest gain in 20 years in February, but the news brought little rejoicing.
The 1.3 percent rise in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators was due mostly to the return of workers socked in by the January blizzard, said The Conference Board, which released the numbers Tuesday.
Also Tuesday, the Commerce Department said economic growth late last year was even slower than previously estimated: The gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 0.5 percent during the last three months of 1995, down from an earlier estimate of 0.9 percent.
For all of last year, the GDP - the total output of goods and services within the United States - grew 2 percent, the smallest annual advance since the recession in 1991.
While the economy has improved since the fourth quarter, February's leading indicators don't signal a coming boom, economists said.
February's rise was fastest since a 1.4 percent gain in January 1976. But economists view the index as a true indication of the future only when it moves in the same direction for three straight months or more.
In January, the index fell 0.5 percent to its lowest reading in more than two years. February marked only the third time in a year that the index has risen from the previous month.
The Conference Board report said the leading index stood at 101.5 in February, compared with 100.2 in January and 100.7 in December.
Of its 11 components, seven made positive contributions, including the prices of materials, vendor deliveries, unfilled orders for durable goods and building permits.
Negative indicators included consumer expectations and first-time claims for unemployment benefits.
LENGTH: Short : 45 linesby CNB