ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, April 7, 1996 TAG: 9604050060
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: 3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MARGIE FISHER EDITORIAL WRITER
FUNDING for the U.S. Census Bureau, on the endangered list in Congress, might seem to have no bearing on future economic development in the Roanoke Valley - but it does. Here, simplified version, is why:
Facing budget cutbacks, the Census Bureau is thinking of scrapping in the year 2000 much of its information-gathering about Americans, from our attendance at operas to the places where we rent videos to the number of homes that still have no indoor plumbing to the kind of spices we import.
OK, we may not care to know how much anise, poppy and sesame is in our neighbors' kitchens. But among the data that could be lost are commuter patterns - and it's commuter patterns around central cities with at least 50,000 population that largely define metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).
The boundaries and size of MSAs, in turn, often determine their ability to compete for industrial prospects. Many nationally prominent businesses won't even think of scouting for sites to relocate or expand in smaller MSAs. These include Roanoke's (population: 224,447), comprised of Roanoke city, Roanoke County, Salem and Botetourt.
But Roanoke's MSA is not destined to stay as is. It could become part of an MSA triad anchored by the cities of Roanoke, Lynchburg and Danville. In fact, Bill Mezger, senior economist with the Virginia Employment Commission, thinks it's almost inevitable. Sooner (the year 2000) or later (2010, 2020).
Moreover, Mezger foresees the distinct possibility that another census or two will bring Montgomery County, not part of an MSA now, into the Roanoke-Lynchburg-Danville loop - this based on the assumption that commuting between Montgomery and Roanoke will continue to increase.
With Montgomery, of course, would come Virginia Tech, and this would not only strengthen the bonds that Roanoke and Tech are now forging. Looking at the bigger picture, it could also lead to a job-rich research triangle mimicking North Carolina's Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill success.
It's very likely, too, says Mezger, that Franklin County, and possibly Henry County and Martinsville, will eventually be added to the Roanoke-Lynchburg-Danville MSA mix - again, based on developing commuting trends.
And you thought all commuters did was add to rush-hour traffic. Show more respect. These people may hold the region's future economic vitality, as well as the steering wheel, in their hands.
Following the 1990 census, for instance, it became clear that fast-growing Bedford County belonged in an MSA. Because nearly as many Bedford residents commute to Roanoke as to Lynchburg, the county had a choice of which MSA to join. Much to Roanoke's regret, it chose Lynchburg.
Never mind that some Bedford residents pushed unsuccessfully last year for a Bedford city-Bedford County merger, specifically to avoid the threat of a future annexation by Lynchburg. (So much for heartfelt affinity with the Hill City.) What's important to this discussion is that Bedford's growth and job commuters opened wide the possibility of the Roanoke-Lynchburg-Danville alliance. That's because Bedford provided the missing link for three contiguous MSAs. (MSAs can't combine if they have to leap across a county that doesn't have MSA status.)
If Bedford keeps growing (a 1995 Census Bureau update shows its population has increased significantly just since 1990) and its residents keep driving to jobs in Roanoke and Lynchburg, Mezger says, it will fuse the two central cities closer and further nudge the region toward a North Carolina-style trinity of mutual interests. At the least it would create an MSA more on a par with Richmond's and others in Virginia's Eastern Corridor.
But don't order the bubbly for the celebration yet. Again, remember that Mezger's view is based on his analyses of commuter patterns that have jelled over recent decades - as tracked and reported by the Census Bureau.
If the Census Bureau gets out of the business of tracking such developments, the possibility of a Roanoke-Lynchburg-Danville alliance, and the benefits that could accrue to counties and smaller cities in the neighborhood, presumably would re-enter the twilight zone of voluntary agreements and regional cooperation.
Those who recall the rejection back in the '70s of a proposed regional airport to serve Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville, Martinsville and the New River Valley know how easily good ideas can get sucked into that twilight zone's black hole.
LENGTH: Medium: 79 linesby CNB