ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, April 7, 1996 TAG: 9604050126
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: 1 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: SAN JOSE, CALIF.
SOURCE: DONNA ALVARADO SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS
As Bob Dole heads for the finish line in November's general election voters could well wonder: Can a man in his mid-70s survive the punishing pace of the nation's most critical job?
Science has some intriguing evidence. Health statistics show men who are Dole's age - he's 72 now and would be 73 at inauguration - have an 18 percent probability of dying from all causes during the years 1997 through 2000, the years Dole would be in office. But such probabilities don't tell the whole story.
New studies suggest there is also a ``survivor'' phenomenon for men who, like Dole, reach old age without any major health problems. Once people attain age 70 or 75 without major heart disease, high blood pressure or stroke, the chance that they will continue vigorously into extreme old age rises significantly.
``Today's septuagenarian is a healthier specimen than one we've seen 10 or 15 years ago,'' said Dr. Edmund Duthie, an aging expert at the Medical College of Wisconsin.
Even with his history of prostate cancer and an arm withered from a war wound, Dole has reached his 70s in excellent shape. Nevertheless, polls show one-third of Republicans voting in recent primaries thought Dole's age could hurt him.
``It's the most powerful office in the most powerful nation on Earth. The decisions made affect every American person,'' said Dr. Jerrold Post of George Washington University, who has written widely on the health of presidents and world leaders.
Nearly two-thirds of U.S. presidents this century have died before 73. Dole would be the oldest man ever to take office as a first-term president, older even than Ronald Reagan, who was 69.
But the past doesn't always predict the future.
For one thing, people are living longer than they used to. When Dole was born in 1923, white men weren't expected to live past age 57. Now men his age on average live to 83 - six years longer than Dole would be at the end of a four-year first term.
Still, sheer survival isn't enough to ensure that a person can carry out the job of president. Should a president be disabled or incapacitated by the major risks of age - heart attack, stroke or cancer - even after he recovers he might not be able to think as quickly on his feet.
It takes a mentally nimble person to respond quickly without over-reacting to a complex event. In time of crisis, the president has his finger on the trigger of a nuclear bomb.
``In a tiny fraction of a millisecond, everything could be gone,'' said Herbert Abrams, a Stanford University doctor who has written about presidential disability and national security. Abrams has long argued that presidential candidates should make public their medical status.
``It at least gives the voter some idea whether the guy will be able to finish his 208-week contract with the American public,'' he said.
Dole, recognizing that his age could be a voting issue, has released 10 pages of medical records showing he was in excellent health at his last physical exam in July. The highlights include:
* No evidence of heart disease. His cholesterol level rose to about 220 in 1986, but a drug called Pravachol has since reduced it to 182. Under 200 is considered desirable.
* No evidence that Dole's prostate cancer, diagnosed and removed with surgery in 1991, has returned. The cancer had not spread and specialists say the risk of it recurring is remote.
* Low blood pressure, normal pulse and normal electrocardiogram (a measure of heart health).
While illness can and has occurred in presidents at any age, the chance that they will happen in an older person is greater.
``The 70s are an age in which heart disease, cancer and stroke occur a lot more often than in the 50s,'' said Abrams, the Stanford doctor. ``I think it's inevitable that age must play an important part in the thinking of the electorate.''
The risk of getting Alzheimer's disease also rises sharply with age: It occurs in only 3 percent of those aged 65 to 74, but jumps to 19 percent of those aged 75 to 84.
Other experts in aging, however, say that new research shows more people are aging into their 70s and even beyond without significant health problems. Although lifespan has been increasing consistently through this century, this survivor pattern is a relatively new development.
Studies by Kenneth Manton at Duke University show that in the past decade, people over age 65 showed a 11 percent drop in the rate of 16 major diseases associated with old age, such as arthritis, high blood pressure, heart disease and stroke.
Others say that Dole has another major factor in his favor: He's already accustomed to long hours and demanding work as Senate majority leader. One of Dole's physicians, Dr. Charles Peck of Walter Reed Army Hospital, said Dole routinely puts in 14 to 16 hours a day. ``The pace he's going - and he's been going this pace for some time - he's doing extremely well,'' Peck said.
LENGTH: Medium: 97 lines ILLUSTRATION: PHOTO: New studies suggest there is a ``survivor'' phenomenonby CNBfor men who, like Dole, reach old age without any major health
problems. color. KEYWORDS: POLITICS PRESIDENT