ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, April 7, 1996 TAG: 9604050138
SECTION: HORIZON PAGE: 1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DONALD E. NUECHTERLEIN
Washington and the major capitals of Asia breathed a sigh of relief March 23 when Taiwan and China each claimed victory following the presidential election in Taiwan. Beijing then stopped its missile testing in the Taiwan Strait and the United States withdrew two aircraft carrier battle groups from that international waterway.
Except for a reduction in military tensions, however, nothing fundamental has changed in the China-Taiwan political dispute: Beijing remains determined to bring this island of 21 million people, which it views as a renegade province, into closer alignment with its policies. Taiwan, on the other hand, seems more determined than ever to carve out a larger international role for itself even though its newly elected president, Lee Teng-hui, says he is not pressing for independence.
Lee claimed a great victory in Taiwan's first democratic presidential election because he won 54 percent of the votes. He is in a strong position to push for greater recognition of Taiwan's role in international relations, including a seat in the United Nations. He reaffirmed this goal following the election even though China strongly objects and will veto Taiwan's application, if it comes to a vote at the U.N.
Ironically, China, too, claimed that Taiwan's election was a victory because the candidate who advocated immediate independence got only 21 percent of the vote. It was a face-saving way for Beijing to back off its military confrontation policy, particularly after President Clinton sent two US aircraft carriers to the region in March.
Nevertheless, few observers doubt that the election outcome demonstrates the strong desire of Taiwan's citizens to have their government adopt a more assertive role in world affairs, and not to be subservient to the wishes of Beijing. This reality was not lost in Washington or Beijing or Tokyo because three-quarters of Taiwan's electorate voted for parties which favor that course.
Three additional aspects of events surrounding this election are important for Americans to consider before they decide how important Taiwan is to the United States.
First, China's military provocations in the waters off Taiwan, even though they did not cause material damage or loss of life, demonstrated clearly that China has the capability to cause serious harm to Taiwan's economy and its port facilities if President Lee pushes his autonomy policy too far. The Taipei stock market suffered a sharp drop during March and a large flight of capital also occurred when China started its military maneuvers.
By demonstrating its missile capability on targets in the Taiwan Strait, China showed a willingness to use sustained pressure on Taiwan, perhaps including a blockade of its ports, in order to strangle its economy. A military invasion would not be required to accomplish it.
Second, the United States finds itself on the horns of a serious dilemma in its relations with China and Taiwan. The problem is made worse in this election year because Clinton and the Republican Congress probably will be at odds over how to deal with China's belligerent policies.
During March, while Clinton tried to steer a middle course between upholding stated U.S. policy that Taiwan's future should not be settled by force, and not jeopardizing this country's trading relationship with China, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution, with bipartisan support, which called on the president to give Taiwan a defense guarantee. To the distress of the White House, this action put the House on record as favoring a pro-Taiwan policy. The Senate did not take up the question.
Third, the dispatch of two large U.S. carrier battle groups to international waters between China and Taiwan was a strong signal to Japan and Korea, as well as China, that the United States will not permit the China-Taiwan confrontation to divert it from protecting U.S. vital interests in Northeast Asia, particularly the freedom of the seas in that area.
At a time when the U.S.-Japanese defense relationship is being questioned in Okinawa and by some members of Congress, it was important that Clinton leave no doubt that the United States will continue to guard the Taiwan Strait through which Japan's and Korea's oil lifeline from the Persian Gulf runs. Were Tokyo to doubt the determination of the U.S. Navy to protect these waters against infringement by China or any other power, America's entire strategic relationship with Japan would be in jeopardy.
Although not stated publicly, the presence of the two U.S. carriers near Taiwan was a reminder also to Taiwan's government that it needs U.S. protection and that it should not pursue dangerous policies of which Washington disapproves. Washington needs to make it clear to all concerned that it will not permit its policy in the Taiwan Strait area to be determined by ill-conceived actions by any country in the region.
The question for Clinton to decide (or Bob Dole if he is elected in November) is how far the United States should go in supporting Taiwan's desire for international recognition in the face of China's strong opposition.
A case in point was Beijing's warning to Washington, reported in The Washington Post March 28, that it would face "resolute opposition" from China if it allowed Lee to visit Washington at the invitation of Sen. Jesse Helms, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Lee quickly defused the issue by saying he has no plans to visit the United States.
China thereby underlined its complaint that Lee's private trip to the United States last year to visit Cornell University broke an unofficial understanding that Washington would not grant him a visa. Clinton, on that occasion, bowed to congressional pressure, and Beijing wants assurance that he will not do so again.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokeswoman went further, however, to warn the United States not to support Taiwan's desire for independence. According to the Post, her statement read: "We demand the U.S. government ... earnestly implement its solemn commitment on the question of Taiwan by strictly limiting U.S.-Taiwan relations to being unofficial."
Plainly, Beijing wants Washington to stay out of what it considers an internal dispute with a break-away province, which China is convinced will soon seek diplomatic recognition as an independent country.
The domestic political risks for Clinton are substantial. If he appears to pressure Taiwan not to seek international recognition, including a United Nations seat, he will be criticized by elements in his own Democratic Party who favor Taiwan's case. They will argue that Taiwan is a functioning democracy with a flourishing free market economy and should not be subjected to pressure from a communist regime in Beijing. Many Republicans, including Helms, will join the congressional chorus in support of Taiwan.
However, if Clinton adopts a tough policy toward China on trade and security issues, and its military moves in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, he risks a confrontation with a country which could do great damage to U.S. interests in East Asia. A U.S. policy of open encouragement for Taiwan's independence probably would risk a war with China.
President Richard Nixon set basic U.S. policy in 1972 when he declared in Shanghai that there was one China and its capital was in Beijing. He also declared that the United States opposed the use of force to resolve the political dispute between China and Taiwan. All subsequent American presidents have reiterated that policy.
What China's current leaders fear, and they may be correct, is that America's one-China policy may soon change because of strong anti-communist sentiment in Congress. The Taiwan resolution passed by the House and Helm's invitation to Lee underline Beijing's suspicions that Taiwan will find a responsive Congress..
In my view, the United States risks military conflict with China in the coming years if it supports Taiwan's drive to become independent.
This is an instance when the U.S. government should carefully balance its ideological interest in supporting democracy and free markets against the potential costs of precipitating a war with China, which neither side wants. The U.S. position should be to defend the international waters in the region, but not Taiwan's desire for independence.
This is a time for cool rational thinking, not rhetorical excesses about how other nations ought to behave. It is difficult in a presidential election year for politicians to show such restraint. But it must be done, in Congress and the White House, if the United States is to avoid getting itself embroiled for the third time since 1950 in an Asian war.
Donald Nuechterlein is a political scientist and writer who lives in Charlottesville. He is the author of "America Recommitted: U.S. National Interests in a Restructured World."
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