ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, April 7, 1996 TAG: 9604080042
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-1 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: RICHMOND
SOURCE: WARREN FISKE STAFF WRITER
ONLY A FRACTION of registered voters are expected to turn out for the Democratic caucuses and the GOP primary to elect a U.S. senator, but would-be finalists will depend on every last ballot cast.
The rhetoric is low, the bumper stickers are scarce and the airwaves are devoid of campaign commercials.
At this quiet stage of the 1996 campaign season, three Democrats and two Republicans are engaged in an intricate chess game for their parties' approval and nomination for the U.S. Senate this spring.
Democrats are likely to decide their nominations through 134 Byzantine local mass meetings and caucuses around the state Saturday and the following Monday.
Mark Warner, a wealthy businessman and former state Democratic chairman, is widely expected to win the nod over Leslie Byrne, a former one-term congresswoman from Northern Virginia. Also running is Nancy Spannaus, a perennial candidate for statewide office and follower of political extremist Lyndon LaRouche.
Voters will choose the Republican nominee in a June 11 primary election - the first primary for a Senate seat in Virginia in 30 years. Three-term incumbent John Warner, who has alienated some GOP leaders in recent years by refusing to support party nominees, is facing a tough challenge from Jim Miller, a former budget chief in the Reagan administration.
The goal for Democratic and Republican candidates alike sounds simple: Make sure your supporters show up to vote. But in practice, inspiring people to participate in nominating contests is one of the toughest challenges a candidate ever faces.
For Democrats, it means persuading supporters to set aside several hours on Saturday or the following Monday night to attend a caucus at some local auditorium and publicly declare their allegiance to a candidate.
The caucuses are the ultimate insiders' game in politics. Fewer than 15,000 people are expected to attend, even though the meetings are open to any registered voter who is willing to sign a loyalty oath to the state Democratic Party.
The rules: At each local meeting, each campaign puts forth a list of supporters running to become delegates at the state Democratic Convention June 7-8 in Hampton. The campaign that turns out the most supporters at the meeting gets its slate of delegates elected - on a winner-take-all basis - to the state convention.
A total of 3,500 delegates will be elected to the state convention; a candidate must have the support of at least 1,751 to claim the nomination.
|n n| Many observers expect Mark Warner will win enough delegates next weekend to lock up the nomination. Warner, 41, has been campaigning for more than a year and has deep connections with Democratic organizers across the state as a result of his stint as state party chairman from 1993-95.
Warner, a telecommunication investment banker, estimates his personal wealth to be in excess of $100 million and has pledged to use some of his assets to win the Senate seat. Of the $830,000 he reported raising last year, $516,000 came from his own pocket.
From the stump, Warner pledges to be part of a new generation of computer-literate leaders committed to improving education and enabling people to compete in "the technological revolution."
Byrne, 49, is a latecomer to the field, announcing her candidacy in December. After a seven-year career as a state legislator, she was elected to Congress in 1992 from the newly created 11th District in Northern Virginia. Two years later, she lost a re-election bid.
With little following outside Northern Virginia and little money to spend on a campaign, Byrne is making broad appeals to traditional constituencies of the Democratic party such as labor unions, feminists and environmentalists. In Roanoke, for instance, she has won the endorsement of the Progressive Democratic Coalition, a liberal group led by Gary Waldo, executive director of the Roanoke Education Association, that has been a force in Democratic contests in the city in recent years.
Known as an aggressive campaigner, Byrne refrains from criticizing Warner. She portrays herself as an unapologetic liberal. "I believe that Democrats win when we stand up for the principles on which our party was founded," she said, "and lose when the crypto-Republicans speak for us."
|n n| The Republican primary is becoming a referendum on incumbent Sen. John Warner's loyalty to the state party and its agenda.
Warner, 69, outraged conservative leaders by publicly refusing to support two recent party nominees: Mike Farris for lieutenant governor in 1993, and Oliver North for the U.S. Senate in 1994. Many party leaders blame Warner for Farris' and North's subsequent defeats.
Warner says he was merely following his conscience. He said he did not know enough about Farris to issue a personal endorsement, and questioned North's honesty as a result of his actions in the Iran-Contra affair.
Warner argues that he should not be expected to blindly follow the whims of the state party. "My campaign will answer this question: Can an elected official vote his conscience, putting principal before politics, and win?''
Miller and many of his supporters say Warner has drifted from the party's conservative base. In addition to the senator's actions in recent elections, they point out that Warner has supported abortion rights, opposed Robert Bork for the U.S. Supreme Court in 1987, and voted for a variety of tax increases over the past decade.
"Isn't it about time Virginia had in the United States Senate a Reagan Republican instead of a Clinton Republican?'' Miller said.
Miller, 53, is running far to the right of Warner. He has signed a pledge to vote against any tax increase and has vowed to work to restrict abortion in all cases except when a mother's life is in danger.
As things stand now, any registered voter is eligible to vote in the primary. But several GOP leaders have filed a suit asking the courts to restrict participation to only those who will profess allegiance to the Republican Party. A hearing on the suit is scheduled April 18.
The campaigns expect about 400,000 Virginians - about 13 percent of the state's registered voters - to vote in the primary.
Miller is banking on the support and organization of conservative party leaders who are anxious to push Warner out. Prominent in that group is Farris, who is trying to organize evangelical voters behind Miller.
Warner is seeking support from the moderate, pro-business sector of the party. He is also hoping that a huge edge in fund raising will allow him to overwhelm Miller during the closing weeks of the campaign with a torrent of television advertising.
"Miller has a highly committed group of grass-roots organizers behind him with a lot of experience in turning out the vote and a lot of ideological fervor," said Mark Rozell, a political scientist at Mary Washington College. "The question will be whether Warner can succeed in mobilizing moderate Republicans who may not feel there is as much at stake."
Have a question for the U.S. Senate candidates? Let us know so we can follow up. Write: The Citizens' Agenda, The Roanoke Times, P.O. Box 2491, Roanoke 24010, or e-mail dyanceyinfi.net, or fax 981-3346.
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